IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Confidence Interval for Willingness to Pay Measures in Mode Choice Models


  • Raquel Espino


  • Juan Ortúzar


  • Concepción Román



We obtain confidence intervals for willingness-to-pay (WTP) measures derived from a mode choice model estimated to analyse travel demand for suburban trips in the two main interurban corridors in Gran Canaria using a mixed RP/SP data base. We considered a specification of the systematic utility that incorporates income effect, and interactions among socioeconomic variables and level-of-service attributes, as well as between travel cost and frequency. As our model provides rather complex expressions of the marginal utilities, we simulated the distribution of the WTP (in general, unknown) from a multivariate Normal distribution of the parameter vector. For every random draw of the parameter vector, the corresponding simulation of the WTP was obtained applying the sample enumeration method to the individuals in the RP database. The extremes of the confidence interval were determined by the percentiles on this distribution. After trying different simulation strategies we observed that the size of the intervals was strongly affected by the outliers as well as by the magnitude of the simulated parameters. In all cases examined the simulated distribution of the corresponding WTP measure presents an asymmetric shape that was very similar for the two model specifications considered. This is consistent with previous findings using a radically different approach. We also observed that the upper extreme of the confidence interval for the value of time in private transport was very unstable for different numbers of random draws. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel Espino & Juan Ortúzar & Concepción Román, 2006. "Confidence Interval for Willingness to Pay Measures in Mode Choice Models," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 81-96, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:81-96
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-006-7694-3

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D., 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304, April.
    2. H C W L Williams, 1977. "On the Formation of Travel Demand Models and Economic Evaluation Measures of User Benefit," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 9(3), pages 285-344, March.
    3. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, April.
    4. Jara-Díaz, Sergio R. & Videla, Jorge, 1989. "Detection of income effect in mode choice: Theory and application," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 393-400, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Ibeas, A. & dell’Olio, L. & Bordagaray, M. & Ortúzar, J. de D., 2014. "Modelling parking choices considering user heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 41-49.
    2. Heng Sun & Wayne Forsythe & Nigel Waters, 2007. "Modeling Urban Land Use Change and Urban Sprawl: Calgary, Alberta, Canada," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 353-376, December.
    3. Upton, Vincent & Dhubháin, Áine Ní & Bullock, Craig, 2012. "Preferences and values for afforestation: The effects of location and respondent understanding on forest attributes in a labelled choice experiment," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 17-27.
    4. Nicanor R. Roxas & Alexis M. Fillone, 2016. "Establishing value of time for the inter-island passenger transport of the Western Visayas region, Philippines," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 661-676, July.
    5. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2013. "Confidence intervals of willingness-to-pay for random coefficient logit models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 199-214.
    6. Yang, Chih-Wen & Liao, Pei-Han, 2016. "Modeling the joint choice of access modes and flight routes with parallel structure and random heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 19-31.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:81-96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.