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Die Schätzung externer Effekte im Verkehrswesen mithilfe von Stated-Choice-Experimenten

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  • Juan de Dios Ortúzar

Abstract

The valuation of externalities in transport planning is a serious and difficult business. Many methods advocated and used in the past, such as hedonic pricing, the human capital approach and contingent valuation; have been rightly criticised for their many shortcomings. Among specialist there is a quasi-consensus nowadays in that stated choice methods are superior for this task. We refer to their use for valuing accidents, noise, atmospheric pollution and the feeling of safety when walking in urban streets, discussing a series of design and application issues through case studies. In particular we touch upon experimental design (context, selection of attributes, definition of payment mechanism and design approach), survey conduction (data collection strategy, sample selection, and use of extra questions to aid data validation and analysis), and modelling using the advanced methods that this type of quality data requires/allows for. Our main conclusion is that properly conducted and designed stated choice methods are a valid tool to estimate willingness-to-pay for reducing transport externalities, even in situations involving poor and/or less than fully literate individuals. We also recommend conducting local studies, as cultural differences play a bigger role than normally recognised, and issues such as differences in risk aversion may be crucially important in determining willingness-to-pay values. Die Schätzung externer Effekte des Verkehrs gehört zu den kompliziertesten Problemen der verkehrsökonomischen Forschung. Viele einst verfochtene und angewandte Methoden, wie zum Beispiel die hedonische Preisbildung, der Humankapitalansatz und die Kontingente Bewertungsmethode, werden zu Recht wegen ihrer zahlreichen Unzulänglichkeiten kritisiert. Die Mehrheit der Experten ist inzwischen der Auffassung, dass Stated-Choice-Methoden für diese Aufgabe am besten geeignet sind. Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Anwendung von Stated-Choice- Methoden bei der Bewertung von Verkehrsunfällen, Lärm, Luftverschmutzung sowie des Sicherheitsempfindens beim Fußweg durch die Stadt. Er erörtert anhand von Fallstudien Fragen des Designs und der Umsetzung von Stated-Choice-Experimenten. Besonderes Augenmerk liegt auf der Versuchsgestaltung (Kontext, Auswahl der Attribute, Festlegung des Preismechanismus und der Darstellungsform), der Durchführung derartiger Befragungen (Strategie für die Datenerhebung, Stichprobenauswahl und Einbeziehung zusätzlicher Fragen, um Daten validieren und analysieren zu können) sowie der Modellierung. In diesem Zusammenhang nutzen wir moderne statistische Methoden, die beim Umgang mit dieser Art von Daten erforderlich beziehungsweise möglich sind. Die wichtigste Schlussfolgerung in diesem Beitrag lautet, dass sorgfältig geplante und durchgeführte SC-Experimente ein zuverlässiges Instrument zur Schätzung der Zahlungsbereitschaft (engl. willingness to pay, Abkürzung und im Folgenden WTP) für eine Verringerung externer Effekte im Verkehrswesen sind, auch wenn nicht lese- und schreibkundige Menschen sowie einkommensschwache Bevölkerungsgruppen befragt werden. Es ist jedoch die Durchführung lokaler Studien zu empfehlen, da kulturelle Unterschiede eine wichtige, jedoch oft unterschätzte Rolle spielen und Faktoren wie etwa Unterschiede bei der Risikoaversion für die Bestimmung von WTP-Werten entscheidend sein können.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2010. "Die Schätzung externer Effekte im Verkehrswesen mithilfe von Stated-Choice-Experimenten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(2), pages 39-60.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:79-2-3
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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/DH/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.79.2.39
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
    2. David Hensher & William Greene, 2003. "The Mixed Logit model: The state of practice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-176, May.
    3. Luis I. Rizzi & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2006. "Road Safety Valuation under a Stated Choice Framework," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(1), pages 69-94, January.
    4. Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M. & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios & Rizzi, Luis I., 2009. "Estimating the willingness to pay and value of risk reduction for car occupants in the road environment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 692-707, August.
    5. Mauricio Sillano & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2005. "Willingness-to-pay estimation with mixed logit models: some new evidence," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 37(3), pages 525-550, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Air Transport Policy; Emission trading; Climate change; Mitigation policies;

    JEL classification:

    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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