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Dread and latency impacts on a VSL for cancer risk reductions

Author

Listed:
  • Rebecca L. McDonald

    (University of Warwick)

  • Susan M. Chilton

    (Newcastle University)

  • Michael W. Jones-Lee

    (Newcastle University)

  • Hugh R. T. Metcalf

    () (Newcastle University)

Abstract

Abstract We propose a structural relationship between the value of preventing a statistical cancer fatality and the value of statistical life (VSL) for risks of an instantaneous road accident fatality. This relationship incorporates a context effect reflecting both the illness or ‘morbidity’ associated with cancer fatality and the ‘dread’ or horror associated with the prospect of eventual death from cancer, as well as a latency effect that captures the discounting likely to arise because the onset of the symptoms of cancer typically occurs after some delay. We use a Risk-Risk trade-off study to validate this model by directly estimating the influence of context and latency effects upon the relative size of the VSL for cancer and for road accidents, confirming that both effects are significant and estimating their size using regression analysis. We show that morbidity accounts for the majority of the context premium. We use the elicited coefficients to reconstruct VSL estimates for a range of cancers characterised by their latency and morbidity periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca L. McDonald & Susan M. Chilton & Michael W. Jones-Lee & Hugh R. T. Metcalf, 2016. "Dread and latency impacts on a VSL for cancer risk reductions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 137-161, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:52:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-016-9235-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-016-9235-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jhecon:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:249-262 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alberini, Anna & Ščasný, Milan, 2018. "The benefits of avoiding cancer (or dying from cancer): Evidence from a four- country study," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 249-262.
    3. Michael Jones-Lee & Susan Chilton & Hugh Metcalf & Jytte Nielsen, 2015. "Valuing gains in life expectancy: Clarifying some ambiguities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Anna Alberini, 2017. "Measuring the economic value of the effects of chemicals on ecological systems and human health," OECD Environment Working Papers 116, OECD Publishing.
    5. McDonald, R.L. & Chilton, S.M. & Jones-Lee, M.W. & Metcalf, H.R.T., 2017. "Evidence of variable discount rates and non-standard discounting in mortality risk valuation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-167.
    6. repec:eee:jeeman:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:165-189 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Olofsson , Sara & Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Hultkrantz, Lars & Persson, Ulf, 2016. "Dread and Risk Elimination Premium for the Value of a Statistical Life," Working Papers 2016:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    8. Hammitt, James K. & Herrera-Araujo, Daniel, 2017. "Peeling back the onion: Using latent class analysis to uncover heterogeneous responses to stated preference surveys," TSE Working Papers 17-766, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VSL; Cancer; Risk-Risk trade-off;

    JEL classification:

    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income

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