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Exploring the Foreclosure Contagion Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling

  • Marshall Gangel

    ()

  • Michael Seiler

    ()

  • Andrew Collins

    ()

Registered author(s):

    Over the last several years, the United States has experienced a significant recession. During this downturn, the number of real estate foreclosures has risen drastically. Recent studies have demonstrated a reduction in property values due to neighboring foreclosures—known as the foreclosure contagion effect. This study uses an agent-based modeling approach to explore market-wide emergent behavior that results from the interconnected property-agent behavior. Specifically, we find that the magnitude of the foreclosure contagion effect is a less powerful cause of eventual market collapse than the time a foreclosed property is allowed to linger on the market. This is important because disposition time is much easier to address from a policymaker perspective than is the strength of the foreclosure contagion effect. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-011-9324-1
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    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 46 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 339-354

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:46:y:2013:i:2:p:339-354
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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    1. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael J. Seiler & Vicky L. Seiler & Stefan Traub & David M. Harrison, 2008. "Regret Aversion and False Reference Points in Residential Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(4), pages 461-474.
    3. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-93, May.
    4. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
    5. Einiö, Mikko & Kaustia, Markku & Puttonen, Vesa, 2008. "Price setting and the reluctance to realize losses in apartment markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 19-34, February.
    6. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
    7. William H. Rogers & William Winter, 2009. "The Impact of Foreclosures on Neighboring Housing Sales," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 455-480.
    8. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
    9. Karen M. Pence, 2006. "Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 177-182, February.
    10. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
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