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Exploring the Foreclosure Contagion Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling

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  • Marshall Gangel
  • Michael Seiler
  • Andrew Collins

Abstract

Over the last several years, the United States has experienced a significant recession. During this downturn, the number of real estate foreclosures has risen drastically. Recent studies have demonstrated a reduction in property values due to neighboring foreclosures—known as the foreclosure contagion effect. This study uses an agent-based modeling approach to explore market-wide emergent behavior that results from the interconnected property-agent behavior. Specifically, we find that the magnitude of the foreclosure contagion effect is a less powerful cause of eventual market collapse than the time a foreclosed property is allowed to linger on the market. This is important because disposition time is much easier to address from a policymaker perspective than is the strength of the foreclosure contagion effect. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Marshall Gangel & Michael Seiler & Andrew Collins, 2013. "Exploring the Foreclosure Contagion Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 339-354, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:46:y:2013:i:2:p:339-354
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-011-9324-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Seiler, Michael J., 2015. "The role of informational uncertainty in the decision to strategically default," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 49-59.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    3. Firas Zebian & Richard Dusansky, 2015. "Housing Tax Reform and Foreclosure Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 351-364, October.
    4. Michael J. Seiler, 2017. "Do Liquidated Damages Clauses Affect Strategic Mortgage Default Morality? A Test of the Disjunctive Thesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 204-230, February.
    5. Marcus T. Allen & Justin D. Benefield & Christopher L. Cain & Norman Maynard, 2024. "Distressed Property Sales: Differences and Similarities Across Types of Distress," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 318-353, February.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Peter Chinloy & William Hardin & Zhonghua Wu, 2017. "Foreclosure, REO, and Market Sales in Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 188-215, February.
    8. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & Vincent W. Yao, 2016. "Sales of Distressed Residential Property: What Have We Learned from Recent Research?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(3), pages 159-188.
    9. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    10. Ying Huang & Ronald W. Spahr & Mark A. Sunderman, 2020. "The Impact of Default and Foreclosure on Housing Values: Rings Vs. Neighborhoods Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 338-374, April.
    11. Thomas W. Sanchez, 2021. "Exploring the Relationship between Combined Household Housing and Transportation Costs and Regional Economic Activity in Virginia," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    12. G. B. Korovin, 2020. "Architecture of the agent-based model for the region’s industrial complex digital transformation," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 158-174, October.
    13. Michael J. Seiler, 2016. "The Perceived Moral Reprehensibility of Strategic Mortgage Default," Framed Field Experiments 00622, The Field Experiments Website.

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