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What Determined the Great Cap Rate Compression of 2000–2007, and the Dramatic Reversal During the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis?

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  • Serguei Chervachidze
  • William Wheaton

Abstract

In this paper we revisit the many studies that have attempted to explain the determinants of commercial real estate capitalization rates. We introduce two new innovations. First we are able to incorporate two macroeconomic factors that greatly impact cap rates besides treasury rates and local market fundamentals – the variables most commonly used in such research. These are the general corporate risk premium operating in the economy, and the growth rate of debt relative to GDP in the general economy (liquidity). The addition of these factors greatly adds to the ability of previous models to explain the secular fall of cap rates in the last decade and their recent rise – in terms of traditional measures of within-sample fit. Our second innovation is methodological; our analysis uses a large and robust quarterly panel data set of over 30 US metropolitan areas from 1980q1 through 2009q3. With this data we compare 3 models: a “base model” and then one that selectively adds each of our macro-economic variables. We test the ability of each of these models to fit the 2002–2009 period using “back test” dynamic forecasts. Our conclusion is that much of the secular decline in cap rates from 2000 through 2007 and their subsequent rise seem attributable to the macro-economic factors and less to movements in market fundamentals. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Serguei Chervachidze & William Wheaton, 2013. "What Determined the Great Cap Rate Compression of 2000–2007, and the Dramatic Reversal During the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 208-231, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:46:y:2013:i:2:p:208-231
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-011-9334-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. David Ling & Jeffrey Fisher & A. Naranjo & Jeffrey Fisher & Andy Naranjo, 2007. "Commercial Real Estate Return Cycles: Do Capital Flows Matter?," ERES eres2007_215, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Daisy J. Huang & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Chung-Yi Tse, 2018. "What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 431-475, October.
    3. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.
    4. Alain Chaney & Martin Hoesli, 2015. "Transaction-Based and Appraisal-Based Capitalization Rate Determinants," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43.
    5. Michiel N Daams & Philip McCann & Paolo Veneri & Richard Barkham & Dennis Schoenmaker, 2024. "Capital shocks and the great urban divide," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    6. Niina Leskinen & Jussi Vimpari & Seppo Junnila, 2020. "A Review of the Impact of Green Building Certification on the Cash Flows and Values of Commercial Properties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Devaney, Steven & Livingstone, Nicola & McAllister, Pat & Nanda, Anupam, 2019. "Capitalization rates and transaction activity in international office markets: A global perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    8. Jędrzej Białkowski & Sheridan Titman & Garry Twite, 2023. "The Determinants of Office Cap Rates: The International Evidence," Working Papers in Economics 23/01, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
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    10. Gregg Fisher & Eva Steiner & Sheridan Titman & Ashvin Viswanathan, 2022. "Location density, systematic risk, and cap rates: Evidence from REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 366-400, June.
    11. Steffen Heinig & Anupam Nanda & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2016. "Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? An Analysis of the European Commercial Real Estate Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commercial real estate; Capitalization rate; Real estate cycles; Financial crisis; R33; G12; G14; D84;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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