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Subjective beliefs and economic preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Glenn W. Harrison

    (Georgia State University
    Georgia State University
    University of Cape Town)

  • Andre Hofmeyr

    (University of Cape Town
    University of Cape Town)

  • Harold Kincaid

    (University of Cape Town
    University of Cape Town)

  • Brian Monroe

    (University College Dublin)

  • Don Ross

    (Georgia State University
    University of Cape Town
    University of Cape Town
    University College Cork)

  • Mark Schneider

    (Georgia State University)

  • J. Todd Swarthout

    (Georgia State University
    Georgia State University)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic presents a remarkable opportunity to put to work all of the research that has been undertaken in past decades on the elicitation and structural estimation of subjective belief distributions as well as preferences over atemporal risk, patience, and intertemporal risk. As contributors to elements of that research in laboratories and the field, we drew together those methods and applied them to an online, incentivized experiment in the United States. We have two major findings. First, the atemporal risk premium during the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to change significantly compared to before the pandemic, consistent with theoretical results of the effect of increased background risk on foreground risk attitudes. Second, subjective beliefs about the cumulative level of deaths evolved dramatically over the period between May and November 2020, a volatile one in terms of the background evolution of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn W. Harrison & Andre Hofmeyr & Harold Kincaid & Brian Monroe & Don Ross & Mark Schneider & J. Todd Swarthout, 2022. "Subjective beliefs and economic preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(3), pages 795-823, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:expeco:v:25:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10683-021-09738-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10683-021-09738-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Block, Joern & Kritikos, Alexander S. & Priem, Maximilian & Stiel, Caroline, 2022. "Emergency-aid for self-employed in the Covid-19 pandemic: A flash in the pan?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Crosetto, Paolo & de Haan, Thomas, 2023. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18, pages 1-1, January.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:4:p:745-767 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hamza Umer, 2023. "A selected literature review of the effect of Covid-19 on preferences," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 147-156, June.
    5. Bokern, Paul & Linde, Jona & Riedl, Arno & Werner, Peter, 2023. "The robustness of preferences during a crisis: The case of COVID-19," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    6. King King Li & Ying-Yi Hong & Bo Huang & Tony Tam, 2022. "Social preferences before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in China," Post-Print hal-03899653, HAL.
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1313-1333 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Boutin, Delphine & Petifour, Laurene & Megzari, Haris, 2023. "Permanent Instability of Preferences after COVID-19 Crisis: A Natural Experiment from Urban Burkina Faso," IZA Discussion Papers 16075, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Lohmann, Paul M. & Gsottbauer, Elisabeth & You, Jing & Kontoleon, Andreas, 2023. "Anti-social behaviour and economic decision-making: Panel experimental evidence in the wake of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 136-171.
    10. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:4:p:745-767 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Blayac, Thierry & Dubois, Dimitri & Duchêne, Sébastien & Nguyen-Van, Phu & Ventelou, Bruno & Willinger, Marc, 2022. "What drives the acceptability of restrictive health policies: An experimental assessment of individual preferences for anti-COVID 19 strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    12. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1313-1333 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Castillo, Jose Gabriel & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2023. "The unintended consequences of confinement: Evidence from the rural area in Guatemala," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Risk preferences; Time preferences; Subjective beliefs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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