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The Magnitude of Random Appraisal Error in Commercial Real Estate Valuation

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Abstract

Analysis of more than seven hundred pairs of simultaneous independent appraisals of institutional-grade commercial properties shows that the standard deviation of the random component of appraisal error is approximately 2%. Random appraisal error appears constant across both time and the institutional-grade investment universe, except during infrequent periods of real estate market gridlock. Most appraisal error is deterministic in nature, even though it usually appears random in routine cross-sectional analysis. Such appraisal error can be constrained and reduced by investment management control systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1999. "The Magnitude of Random Appraisal Error in Commercial Real Estate Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 33-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:17:n:1:1999:p:33-54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julian Diaz, III, 1997. "An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 57-66.
    2. David Geltner, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 141-166, June.
    3. Julian Diaz & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1998. "A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 349-358, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shuang Zhu & R. Pace, 2012. "Distressed Properties: Valuation Bias and Accuracy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 153-166, January.
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    4. Simon Stevenson, 2000. "International Real Estate Diversification: Empirical Tests using Hedged Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 105-131.
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    7. Michael Young, 2008. "Revisiting Non-normal Real Estate Return Distributions by Property Type in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 233-248, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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