ARFIMA approximation and forecasting of the limiting aggregate structure of long-memory process
This article studies Man and Tiao's (2006) low-order autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average (ARFIMA) approximation to Tsai and Chan's (2005b) limiting aggregate structure of the long-memory process. In matching the autocorrelations, we demonstrate that the approximation works well, especially for larger d values. In computing autocorrelations over long lags for larger d value, using the exact formula one might encounter numerical problems. The use of the ARFIMA(0, d , &dmacr; 1 ) model provides a useful alternative to compute the autocorrelations as a really close approximation. In forecasting future aggregates, we demonstrate the close performance of using the ARFIMA(0, d , &dmacr; 1 ) model and the exact aggregate structure. In practice, this provides a justification for the use of a low-order ARFIMA model in predicting future aggregates of long-memory process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Man, K. S., 2003. "Long memory time series and short term forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 477-491.
- Man, K.S. & Tiao, G.C., 2006. "Aggregation effect and forecasting temporal aggregates of long memory processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-281.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:2:p:89-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.