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Average conditional correlation and tree structures for multivariate GARCH models


  • Giovanni Barone-Adesi

    (Institute of Finance, University of Lugano, Switzerland)

  • Francesco Audrino

    (Institute of Finance, University of Lugano, Switzerland)


We propose a simple class of multivariate GARCH models, allowing for time-varying conditional correlations. Estimates for time-varying conditional correlations are constructed by means of a convex combination of averaged correlations (across all series) and dynamic realized (historical) correlations. Our model is very parsimonious. Estimation is computationally feasible in very large dimensions without resorting to any variance reduction technique. We back-test the models on a six-dimensional exchange-rate time series using different goodness-of-fit criteria and statistical tests. We collect empirical evidence of their strong predictive power, also in comparison to alternative benchmark procedures. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Barone-Adesi & Francesco Audrino, 2006. "Average conditional correlation and tree structures for multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 579-600.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:8:p:579-600 DOI: 10.1002/for.1014

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2008. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with Bayesian dynamic linear models," Papers 0802.0214,
    2. Jacobs, Michael & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K., 2014. "On the characteristics of dynamic correlations between asset pairs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 60-82.
    3. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "The impact of general non-parametric volatility functions in multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3032-3052, July.

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