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Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection in constant conditional correlation GARCH models

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  • Varga-Haszonits, I.
  • Kondor, I.

Abstract

This paper investigates the efficiency of minimum variance portfolio optimization for stock price movements following the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH process proposed by Bollerslev. Simulations show that the quality of portfolio selection can be improved substantially by computing optimal portfolio weights from conditional covariances instead of unconditional ones. Measurement noise can be further reduced by applying some filtering method on the conditional correlation matrix (such as Random Matrix Theory based filtering). As an empirical support for the simulation results, the analysis is also carried out for a time series of S&P500 stock prices.

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  • Varga-Haszonits, I. & Kondor, I., 2007. "Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection in constant conditional correlation GARCH models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(1), pages 307-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:385:y:2007:i:1:p:307-318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2007.06.017
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    6. Imre Kondor & G'abor Papp & Fabio Caccioli, 2016. "Analytic solution to variance optimization with no short-selling," Papers 1612.07067, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    7. Eterovic, Nicolas A. & Eterovic, Dalibor S., 2013. "Separating the wheat from the chaff: Understanding portfolio returns in an emerging market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 145-169.
    8. Imre Kondor, 2014. "Estimation Error of Expected Shortfall," Papers 1402.5534, arXiv.org.
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    16. Varga-Haszonits, Istvan & Caccioli, Fabio & Kondor, Imre, 2016. "Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68955, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    18. Vrinda Dhingra & Shiv Kumar Gupta & Amita Sharma, 2023. "Norm constrained minimum variance portfolios with short selling," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-35, December.

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