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The Effect of Global Financial Crisis on Budget Deficits in European Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Serdar Kurt

    () (Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University)

  • Canan Gunes

    () (Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University)

  • Verda Davasligil

    () (Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University)

Abstract

The aim of the study is to investigate the effects of the 2008 Financial Crisis, which affected the financial variables as well as the real variables such as economic growth and unemployment, on budget deficits of countries. In the study, general government deficit or surplus, general government debt, total government expenditure, total government revenue, taxes on production and imports, government fixed investment and inflation data covering 1998-2008 periods have been used. In order to determine the effect of the crisis, the crisis dummy has been formed. The results of the study revealed that total government revenue and inflation have a positive effect on budget balance that is to say they reduce the budget deficit. On the other hand total government expenditures have a negative effect on budget balance that is to say they increase the budget deficit. In addition, the crisis variable is determined to have an increasing impact on budget deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Kurt & Canan Gunes & Verda Davasligil, 2012. "The Effect of Global Financial Crisis on Budget Deficits in European Countries: Panel Data Analysis," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ist:ancoec:v:17:y:2012:i:1:p:1-22
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    File URL: http://eidergisi.istanbul.edu.tr/sayi17/iueis17m1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Bhargava & L. Franzini & W. Narendranathan, 2006. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 4, pages 61-77 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    3. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    4. Philippe Aghion & Ioana Marinescu, 2008. "Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 251-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget Deficit; Financial Crisis; Panel Data; Stimulus and Rescue Packages;

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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