IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v18n022015p277-302.html

Income Migration and Home Price Trajectories in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel M. Otterstrom

    (Brigham Young University)

Abstract

This paper models one facet of the relationship between housing market price shifts and income migration among U.S. regions: how income migration relates to regional housing price clusters. The tremendous negative slide in national housing prices from 2006 to 2012 had an uneven spatial distribution. These differences are explored within the context of net income and net population migration (movement of money with people). Median housing prices for urban areas from 2005 to 2010 and IRS county-to-county migration data are used to compare income migration among urban clusters of similar housing price trends. Selective migrations of people and income in and out of these housing clusters have either exacerbated the housing bust or softened its decline. Income effectiveness, or the gain or loss of money caused by migration, is a helpful measure that can be used to help predict future housing price movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel M. Otterstrom, 2015. "Income Migration and Home Price Trajectories in the United States," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 277-302.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:18:n:02:2015:p:277-302
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/v18n2-income-migration-and-home-price-trajectories-in-the-united-states.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kari Hämäläinen & Petri Böckerman, 2004. "Regional Labor Market Dynamics, Housing, and Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 543-568, August.
    2. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2006. "Urban growth and housing supply," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 71-89, January.
    4. Gilad Aharonovitz, 2011. "Knowledge-based spatial differences in economic activity, job related migration and housing related migration," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1), pages 159-188, February.
    5. Potepan, Michael J., 1994. "Intermetropolitan Migration and Housing Prices: Simultaneously Determined?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 77-91, June.
    6. Saks, Raven E., 2008. "Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 178-195, July.
    7. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453, August.
    8. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    9. Andrew Coleman & John Landon-Lane, 2007. "Housing Markets and Migration in New Zealand, 1962-2006," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. J. Phillips & E. Goodstein, 2000. "Growth management and housing prices: the case of Portland, Oregon," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 334-344, July.
    11. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2010. "Dispersion in House Price and Income Growth across Markets: Facts and Theories," NBER Chapters, in: Agglomeration Economics, pages 67-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Frame, David E., 2004. "Equilibrium and migration in dynamic models of housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 93-112, January.
    14. Jeffrey Zabel, 2009. "The role of the housing market in the migration response to employment shocks," New England Public Policy Center Working Paper 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ritashree Chakrabarti & Junfu Zhang, 2015. "Unaffordable housing and local employment growth: Evidence from California municipalities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(6), pages 1134-1151, May.
    2. Sebastian Eichhorn & David Pehlke, 2022. "Unintended effects of regional planning in Germany," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 933-950, June.
    3. Bischoff, Oliver, 2012. "Explaining regional variation in equilibrium real estate prices and income," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15.
    4. Peter Nunns, 2019. "The Causes and Economic Consequences of Rising Regional Housing Prices in New Zealand," Working Papers 003, University of Auckland, Economic Policy Center (EPC).
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Barkema, Jelle, 2022. "The Economic Consequences of IT," SocArXiv 8u6an, Center for Open Science.
    6. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    7. Michael J. Osei & John V. Winters, 2019. "Labor Demand Shocks and Housing Prices Across the United States: Does One Size Fit All?," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 33(3), pages 212-219, August.
    8. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2017. "The Economic Implications of House Price Capitalization: A Synthesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 301-339, April.
    9. Oliver Lerbs, "undated". "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," Working Papers 201283, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    10. John Landis & Vincent J. Reina, 2021. "Do Restrictive Land Use Regulations Make Housing More Expensive Everywhere?," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(4), pages 305-324, November.
    11. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2019. "Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen [The impact of local supply constraints on house prices and price dynamics]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 37-65, November.
    12. Gregory Verdugo, 2011. "Fragmentation urbaine et chocs économiques : deux déterminants de l’offre de logements sociaux en France," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 446(1), pages 3-24.
    13. Christian A. L Hilber & Jan Rouwendal & Wouter Vermeulen, 2021. "Local economic conditions and the nature of new housing supply," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 339-366.
    14. Daniel A. Broxterman & William D. Larson, 2020. "An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 677-711, September.
    15. Juan Carmona & Markus Lampe & Joan Rosés, 2017. "Housing affordability during the urban transition in Spain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 70(2), pages 632-658, May.
    16. repec:ehl:lserod:60556 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gyourko, Joseph & Molloy, Raven, 2015. "Regulation and Housing Supply," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1289-1337, Elsevier.
    18. Remi Jedwab & Jason Barr & Jan K. Brueckner, 2020. "Cities without Skylines: Worldwide Building-Height Gaps and Their Implications," CESifo Working Paper Series 8511, CESifo.
    19. Oikarinen, Elias & Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Engblom, Janne, 2018. "U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 54-69.
    20. Oikarinen, Elias & Peltola, Risto & Valtonen, Eero, 2015. "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: The case of a small sparsely populated country," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 18-30.
    21. Amine Ouazad, 2020. "Resilient Urban Housing Markets: Shocks vs. Fundamentals," Papers 2010.00413, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:18:n:02:2015:p:277-302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.