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Extrapolative Beliefs in Perceptual and Economic Decisions: Evidence of a Common Mechanism

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  • Cary Frydman

    (Finance and Business Economics Department, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089)

  • Gideon Nave

    (Marketing Department, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

A critical component of both economic and perceptual decision making under uncertainty is the belief-formation process. However, most research has studied belief formation in economic and perceptual decision making in isolation. One reason for this separate treatment may be the assumption that there are distinct psychological mechanisms that underlie belief formation in economic and perceptual decisions. An alternative theory is that there exists a common mechanism that governs belief formation in both domains. Here, we test this alternative theory by combining a novel computational modeling technique with two well-known experimental paradigms. We estimate a drift-diffusion model (DDM) and provide an analytical method to decode prior beliefs from DDM parameters. Subjects in our experiment exhibit strong extrapolative beliefs in both paradigms. In line with the common mechanism hypothesis, we find that a single computational model explains belief formation in both tasks and that individual differences in belief formation are correlated across tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cary Frydman & Gideon Nave, 2017. "Extrapolative Beliefs in Perceptual and Economic Decisions: Evidence of a Common Mechanism," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2340-2352, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:63:y:2017:i:7:p:2340-2352
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Albers, Thilo N.H. & Jerven, Morten & Suesse, Marvin, 2023. "The Fiscal State in Africa: Evidence from a Century of Growth," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 65-101, January.
    4. Clithero, John A., 2018. "Response times in economics: Looking through the lens of sequential sampling models," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 61-86.
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    7. Cary Frydman & Ian Krajbich, 2022. "Using Response Times to Infer Others’ Private Information: An Application to Information Cascades," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2970-2986, April.

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