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Trading as Gambling

Author

Listed:
  • Anne Jones Dorn

    (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Daniel Dorn

    (LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Paul Sengmueller

    (CentER, Tilburg University, 5037 AB Tilburg, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper offers evidence from three different samples consistent with investors substituting between playing the lottery and gambling in financial markets. In the United States, increases in the jackpots of the multistate lotteries Powerball and Mega Millions are associated with significant reductions in small trade participation in the stock market. California-based discount brokerage clients and German discount brokerage clients are significantly less likely to trade during weeks with larger lottery prizes in the California and German lotteries, respectively. Variation in lottery prizes affects speculative trading in more lottery-like securities such as individual stocks and options, but not trading in bonds and mutual funds. Trading that is likely associated with long-term savings motives, such as trading in retirement accounts, does not respond to lottery jackpots, either. The negative relation between trading activity and jackpots is stronger for individuals who are more likely to play the lottery. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Jones Dorn & Daniel Dorn & Paul Sengmueller, 2015. "Trading as Gambling," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2376-2393, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:61:y:2015:i:10:p:2376-2393
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1979
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Zi-Mei Wang & Donald Lien, 2022. "Is maximum daily return a lottery? Evidence from monthly revenue announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 545-600, August.
    4. Ana Brochado & Margarida Abreu & Victor Mendes, 2020. "Correlates of Gambling," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 456-462.
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    6. Cox, Ruben & Kamolsareeratana, Atcha & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2020. "Compulsive gambling in the financial markets: Evidence from two investor surveys," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Pelster, Matthias, 2019. "Attracting attention from peers: Excitement in social trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 158-179.
    8. Bao, Wei & Guo, Shijun & Peng, Diefeng & Rao, Yulei, 2023. "Trading gap in holidays and price transmission: Evidence from cross-listed stocks on the A-share and H-share markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Thanh Huong Nguyen, 2019. "Information and Noise in Stock Markets: Evidence on the Determinants and Effects Using New Empirical Measures," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 7-2019.
    10. Baig, Ahmed S. & Blau, Benjamin M. & Butt, Hassan A. & Yasin, Awaid, 2023. "Reprint of: Do retail traders destabilize financial markets? An investigation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Hu, Yitong & Li, Xiao & Goodell, John W. & Shen, Dehua, 2021. "Investor attention shocks and stock co-movement: Substitution or reinforcement?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Gould, John & Yang, Joey W. & Singh, Ranjodh & Yeo, Ben, 2023. "The seasonality of lottery-like stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 383-400.
    13. Huang, Yin-Siang & Chiu, Junmao & Lin, Chih-Yung & Robin,, 2022. "The effect of Chinese lunar calendar on individual investors' trading," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Baig, Ahmed S. & Blau, Benjamin M. & Butt, Hassan A. & Yasin, Awaid, 2022. "Do retail traders destabilize financial markets? An investigation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. Zhu, Hongbing & Yang, Lihua & Xu, Changxin, 2023. "Tracking investor gambling intensity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Justin Cox & Adam Schwartz & Robert Ness, 2020. "Does what happen in Vegas stay in Vegas? Football gambling and stock market activity," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 724-748, October.
    17. Lars Hornuf & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "Pricing shares in equity crowdfunding," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 795-811, April.
    18. Eran Rubin & Amir Rubin, 2021. "On the economic effects of the text completion interface: empirical analysis of financial markets," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 31(3), pages 717-735, September.
    19. Edmund R. Thompson & Gerard P. Prendergast & Gerard H. Dericks, 2021. "Personality, Luck Beliefs, and (Non-?) Problem Lottery Gambling," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 703-722, April.
    20. Ladley, Daniel & Liu, Guanqing & Rockey, James, 2020. "Losing money on the margin," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 107-136.
    21. Daniel Ladley & Guanqing Liu & James Rockey, 2016. "Margin Trading: Hedonic Returns and Real Losses," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.

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