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Estimating the Influence of Fairness on Bargaining Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud De Bruyn

    () (ESSEC Business School, 95000 Cergy, France)

  • Gary E. Bolton

    () (Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802)

Abstract

The strength of bargainers' preferences for fair settlements has important implications for predicting negotiation outcomes and guiding bargaining strategy. Existing literature reports a few calibration exercises for social utility models, but the predictive accuracy of these models for out-of-sample forecasting remains unknown. Therefore, we investigate whether fairness considerations are stable enough across bargaining situations to be quantified and used to forecast bargaining behavior accurately. We develop a model that embeds a preference for fair treatment in a quantal response framework to account for noise and experience. In addition, we estimate preference for fairness (willingness to pay) using the simplest, one-round version of sequential bargaining games and then employ it to perform out-of-sample forecasts of multiple-round games of various lengths, discount factors, pie sizes, and levels of bargainer experience. Except in circumstances in which the bargaining pie is very small, the fitted model has significant and substantial out-of-sample explanatory power. The stability we find implies that the model and techniques might ultimately be extended to estimates of the influence of fairness on field negotiations, as well as across subpopulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud De Bruyn & Gary E. Bolton, 2008. "Estimating the Influence of Fairness on Bargaining Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(10), pages 1774-1791, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:54:y:2008:i:10:p:1774-1791
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0887
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nieken, Petra & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2012. "Repeated moral hazard and contracts with memory: A laboratory experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 1000-1008.
    2. van Damme, Eric & Binmore, Kenneth G. & Roth, Alvin E. & Samuelson, Larry & Winter, Eyal & Bolton, Gary E. & Ockenfels, Axel & Dufwenberg, Martin & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Gneezy, Uri & Kocher, Martin G, 2014. "How Werner Güth's ultimatum game shaped our understanding of social behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 292-318.
    3. Eva I. Hoppe & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2013. "Contracting under Incomplete Information and Social Preferences: An Experimental Study," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1516-1544.
    4. Stefan Kohler, 2014. "Guilt causes equal or unequal division in alternating-offer bargaining," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1611-1617.
    5. Breitmoser, Yves, 2017. "Discrete Choice with Presentation Effects," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 35, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    6. Eyal Ert & Ido Erev & Alvin E. Roth, 2011. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Yefen Chen & Xuanming Su & Xiaobo Zhao, 2012. "Modeling Bounded Rationality in Capacity Allocation Games with the Quantal Response Equilibrium," Management Science, INFORMS, pages 1952-1962.
    8. Hoppe, Eva I. & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2015. "Do sellers offer menus of contracts to separate buyer types? An experimental test of adverse selection theory," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 17-33.
    9. Sigbjørn Birkeland, 2013. "Negotiation under Possible Third-Party Resolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 281-299.
    10. Sigbjørn Birkeland & Bertil Tungodden, 2014. "Fairness motivation in bargaining: a matter of principle," Theory and Decision, Springer, pages 125-151.
    11. Bolton, Gary E. & Karagözoğlu, Emin, 2016. "On the influence of hard leverage in a soft leverage bargaining game: The importance of credible claims," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 164-179.
    12. repec:hrv:faseco:32067416 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kohler, Stefan, 2012. "Envy can promote more equal division in alternating-offer bargaining," MPRA Paper 40761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Elena Katok & Diana Yan Wu, 2009. "Contracting in Supply Chains: A Laboratory Investigation," Management Science, INFORMS, pages 1953-1968.
    15. Kohler, Stefan, 2012. "More fair play in an ultimatum game after resettlement in Zimbabwe: A field experiment and a structural model," MPRA Paper 40248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rudolf Kerschbamer & Daniel Muller, 2017. "Social preferences and political attitudes: An online experiment on a large heterogeneous sample," Working Papers 2017-16, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    17. Gary Bolton & Jeannette Brosig-Koch, 2012. "How do coalitions get built? Evidence from an extensive form coalition game with and without communication," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 41(3), pages 623-649, August.

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