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The Idea Itself and the Circumstances of Its Emergence as Predictors of New Product Success

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  • Jacob Goldenberg

    () (School of Business Administration, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel)

  • Donald R. Lehmann

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • David Mazursky

    (School of Business Administration, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel)

Abstract

In view of the distressingly low rate of success in new product introduction, it is important to identify predictive guidelines early in the new product development process so that better choices can be made and unnecessary costs avoided. In this paper, we propose a framework for early analysis based on the success potential embodied in the product-idea itself and the circumstances of its emergence. Based on two studies reporting actual introductions, we identified several determinants (such as how the ideas originated, their specific configurations, and the level of technology required for their implementation) that significantly distinguish successful from unsuccessful new products in the marketplace. We suggest that these factors, together with already known factors of success/failure, may aid in the estimation of the potential of a concept early in its development.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Goldenberg & Donald R. Lehmann & David Mazursky, 2001. "The Idea Itself and the Circumstances of Its Emergence as Predictors of New Product Success," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 69-84, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:47:y:2001:i:1:p:69-84
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.1.69.10670
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hoegl, Martin & Gibbert, Michael & Mazursky, David, 2008. "Financial constraints in innovation projects: When is less more?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1382-1391, September.
    2. Beck, Jonathan, 2008. "Diderot´s rule," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2008-13, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    3. Andriani, Pierpaolo & Carignani, Giuseppe, 2014. "Modular exaptation: A missing link in the synthesis of artificial form," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1608-1620.
    4. Shunsuke Managi & Zheng Zhang & Shinya Horie, 2016. "A real options approach to environmental R&D project evaluation," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(3), pages 359-394, July.
    5. repec:wsi:ijimxx:v:21:y:2017:i:03:n:s1363919617500220 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Delre, S.A. & Jager, W. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Janssen, M.A., 2007. "Targeting and timing promotional activities: An agent-based model for the takeoff of new products," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 826-835, August.
    7. Scott A. Shane & Karl T. Ulrich, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Technological Innovation, Product Development, and Entrepreneurship in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 133-144, February.
    8. Astebro, Thomas B. & Dahlin, Kristina B., 2005. "Opportunity knocks," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1404-1418, November.
    9. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0376-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Stremersch, S. & Camacho, N.M.A. & Vanneste, S. & Verniers, I.W.J., 2014. "Unraveling Scientific Impact," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2014-014-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    11. Ine Paeleman & Tom Vanacker, 2015. "Less is More, or Not? On the Interplay between Bundles of Slack Resources, Firm Performance and Firm Survival," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(6), pages 819-848, September.
    12. Gellynck, Xavier & Kuhne, Bianka & Van Wezemael, Lynn & Verbeke, Wim, 2010. "Translating Latent Trends In Food Consumer Behavior Into New Products," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116422, European Association of Agricultural Economists;Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Barry L. Bayus, 2013. "Crowdsourcing New Product Ideas over Time: An Analysis of the Dell IdeaStorm Community," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 226-244, June.
    14. Johnson, Joseph G. & Raab, Markus, 2003. "Take The First: Option-generation and resulting choices," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 215-229, July.
    15. Khalid Abdul Wahid & Haruthai Numprasertchai & Yuraporn Sudharatna & Tipparat Laohavichien, 2016. "Assessing Perceived Knowledge Creation: The Role of Organizational Knowledge and Market Environment," International Journal of Management, Knowledge and Learning, International School for Social and Business Studies, Celje, Slovenia, vol. 5(1), pages 57-79.
    16. Gary L. Lilien & Pamela D. Morrison & Kathleen Searls & Mary Sonnack & Eric von Hippel, 2002. "Performance Assessment of the Lead User Idea-Generation Process for New Product Development," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1042-1059, August.
    17. Nicholas Dew & Stuart Read & Saras Sarasvathy & Robert Wiltbank, 2011. "On the entrepreneurial genesis of new markets: effectual transformations versus causal search and selection," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 231-253, May.
    18. Holmström, Jan & Främling, Kary & Ala-Risku, Timo, 2010. "The uses of tracking in operations management: Synthesis of a research program," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 267-275, August.
    19. Ramasesh, Ranga & Tirupati, Devanath & Vaitsos, Constantin A., 2010. "Modeling process-switching decisions under product life cycle uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 236-246, August.
    20. DE CLEYN, Sven & BRAET, Johan, 2007. "Research valorisation through spin-off ventures: Integration of existing concepts and typologies," Working Papers 2007008, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    21. Linda Hamdi-Kidar & Cyrielle Vellera, 2012. "What drives lead users to become users entrepreneurs ? an exploratory study of motivations," Post-Print halshs-00851319, HAL.
    22. Dew, Nicholas & Read, Stuart & Sarasvathy, Saras D. & Wiltbank, Robert, 2008. "Outlines of a behavioral theory of the entrepreneurial firm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 37-59, April.
    23. Olivier Toubia & Laurent Florès, 2007. "Adaptive Idea Screening Using Consumers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 342-360, 05-06.

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    Keywords

    New Products; Success; Failure Creativity; Templates;

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