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The Idea Itself and the Circumstances of Its Emergence as Predictors of New Product Success

  • Jacob Goldenberg

    ()

    (School of Business Administration, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel)

  • Donald R. Lehmann

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • David Mazursky

    (School of Business Administration, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel)

Registered author(s):

    In view of the distressingly low rate of success in new product introduction, it is important to identify predictive guidelines early in the new product development process so that better choices can be made and unnecessary costs avoided. In this paper, we propose a framework for early analysis based on the success potential embodied in the product-idea itself and the circumstances of its emergence. Based on two studies reporting actual introductions, we identified several determinants (such as how the ideas originated, their specific configurations, and the level of technology required for their implementation) that significantly distinguish successful from unsuccessful new products in the marketplace. We suggest that these factors, together with already known factors of success/failure, may aid in the estimation of the potential of a concept early in its development.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.1.69.10670
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    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 47 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 69-84

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:47:y:2001:i:1:p:69-84
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    1. Glen L. Urban & Eric von Hippel, 1988. "Lead User Analyses for the Development of New Industrial Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(5), pages 569-582, May.
    2. Jacob Goldenberg & David Mazursky & Sorin Solomon, 1999. "The Fundamental Templates of Quality Ads," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 333-351.
    3. Ostlund, Lyman E, 1974. " Perceived Innovation Attributes as Predictors of Innovativeness," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 23-29, Se.
    4. Roger J. Calantone & Jeffrey B. Schmidt & X. Michael Song, 1996. "Controllable Factors of New Product Success: A Cross-National Comparison," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 341-358.
    5. Labay, Duncan G & Kinnear, Thomas C, 1981. " Exploring the Consumer Decision Process in the Adoption of Solar Energy Systems," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 271-78, December.
    6. Cooper, Robert G., 1985. "Industrial firms' new product strategies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 107-121, April.
    7. Glen L. Urban & Theresa Carter & Steven Gaskin & Zofia Mucha, 1986. "Market Share Rewards to Pioneering Brands: An Empirical Analysis and Strategic Implications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 645-659, June.
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