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High-Definition Television: Assessing Demand Forecasts for a Next Generation Consumer Durable


  • Barry L. Bayus

    (Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina, Carroll Hall, CB #3490, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599)


High-Definition Television promises to be the next generation of television. This technology has broad implications for consumer markets, as well as the underlying manufacturing, technology development, and R&D activities of firms. Under increasing pressure from various groups, the U.S. government must make major policy and funding decisions based on its assessment of the likely demand for HDTV. Three published reports which forecast sales of HDTV after its scheduled introduction in the mid-1990s are available. Unfortunately, these forecasts offer widely differing perspectives on HDTV's potential. This paper presents an approach that links product segmentation (based on historical demand parameters, and marketing and manufacturing related variables) and demand forecasting for new products. The published HDTV forecasts are then assessed using this segmentation scheme. Differing from the Congressional Budget Office's earlier evaluation, this analysis indicates that one report is consistent with historical data from the home appliance industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry L. Bayus, 1993. "High-Definition Television: Assessing Demand Forecasts for a Next Generation Consumer Durable," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(11), pages 1319-1333, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:39:y:1993:i:11:p:1319-1333

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    9. Sachin Gupta & Dipak C. Jain & Mohanbir S. Sawhney, 1999. "Modeling the Evolution of Markets with Indirect Network Externalities: An Application to Digital Television," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 396-416.
    10. Cantamessa, Marco & Valentini, Carlo, 2000. "Planning and managing manufacturing capacity when demand is subject to diffusion effects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 227-240, July.
    11. Kretschmer, Tobias & Rösner, Mariana, 2010. "Increasing Dominance - the Role of Advertising, Pricing and Product Design," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 11500, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
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    17. Gilvan C. Souza & Barry L. Bayus & Harvey M. Wagner, 2004. "New-Product Strategy and Industry Clockspeed," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(4), pages 537-549, April.


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