—Robust Prediction and Unrealistic Assumptions
In the response to my commentary on his 2007 editorial entitled “It's the Findings, Stupid, Not the Assumptions,” Steven Shugan raises a number of thought-provoking ideas. In this rejoinder, I focus on three issues that Shugan and I hold the most divergent views. First, while Shugan uses the terms “realistic” and “realism” in several different meanings, I define the realism of an assumption as the extent to which it corresponds with the real world. Second, Shugan makes a strong claim that predictions can be objectively evaluated whereas assumptions cannot. I refute his claim by arguing that testing predictions and testing assumptions follow the same research process of checking whether the proposition concerned corresponds with reality. Third, Shugan maintains that given predictive accuracy, assumptions need not be realistic. I hold an opposite view for the obvious reason that the same prediction may be generated by completely different mechanisms, which in turn are based on different assumptions. Last but not least, the example of socialist economic planning shows that unrealistic assumptions can generate dangerous theories.
Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (09-10)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Buckley, Peter J & Chapman, Malcolm, 1997. "The Perception and Measurement of Transaction Costs," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 127-45, March.
- Steven M. Shugan, 2009. "—Relevancy Is Robust Prediction, Not Alleged Realism," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 991-998, 09-10.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:28:y:2009:i:5:p:999-1000. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.