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Co-movimientos entre los Índices Accionarios y los Ciclos Económicos de Estados Unidos y México

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Ignacio Román de la Sancha

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México)

  • Federico Hernández Álvarez

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México)

  • Gabriel Rodríguez García

    (Consultoría B&G Business & Growth S.C., México)

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar los co-movimientos entre los índices accionarios Dow Jones (DJ) de los Estados Unidos (EU) y el Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones (IPC) de México; así también con los ciclos económicos de ambos países. Para explicar esta relación se propone una metodología que comprende conceptos y modelos utilizados en el estudio de ciclos económicos, en particular: tendencia, ciclo, puntos de giro, conformidad y sincronía. Los resultados muestran que las tendencias del índice DJ y el indicador de la economía mexicana (SICCA) muestran una alta conformidad. Por otra parte, los ciclos financieros del DJ e IPC presentan una sincronía casi coincidente. Algunas variables que escapan a este trabajo y que también influyen en los ciclos económicos incluyen la tasa de cambio, ciclos crediticios y políticos. La originalidad de esta investigación consiste en el estudio de la relación que tienen los ciclos financieros obtenidos de los principales índices accionarios con los ciclos económicos. Se concluye que los ciclos del DJ e IPC anticipan con al menos cuatro meses a los ciclos económicos de EU y México.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Ignacio Román de la Sancha & Federico Hernández Álvarez & Gabriel Rodríguez García, 2019. "Co-movimientos entre los Índices Accionarios y los Ciclos Económicos de Estados Unidos y México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(4), pages 693-714, Octubre -.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:4:p:693-714
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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