IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ila/anaeco/v22y2007i2p3-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculative currency attacks: role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies and real exchange rate overvaluation

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper provides a critical analysis of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) (KR), perhaps the most prominent empirical paper on causes of currency crises. After dealing with problems present in this paper, it proposes an aggregate leading indicator of crisis. The proposed indicator performs better than a composite index based on the best six individual indicators of KR, both in terms of accuracy and predictive capacity, and represents a unified version of the currency crises approach that emphasizes the role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies as an explanation of currency crises, and the approach that emphasizes the role of tradeoffs among policymakers decisions as the main cause of these crises. Variables included in the proposed leading indicator are: the deviation of the actual stock of internationall reserves from an estimated demand for international reserves; the real growth of domestic credit; the ratio of domestic credit to M2; and the behavior of both the real exchange rate and industrial production as a measure of overvaluation of the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Pistelli, 2007. "Speculative currency attacks: role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies and real exchange rate overvaluation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 22(2), pages 3-27, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:22:y:2007:i:2:p:3-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rae-ear.org/index.php/rae/article/view/70
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    3. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    7. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    8. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    9. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
    11. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wildo González P. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2007. "Estimación de la Probabilidad de Recesión en Estados Unidos," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 129-136, December.
    13. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 404-424, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Teuta Ismaili Muharremi, 2015. "Currency Crisis Revisited: A Literature Review," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(6), pages 117-124, December.
    2. Wildo González P. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2007. "Estimación de la Probabilidad de Recesión en Estados Unidos," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 129-136, December.
    3. Ayala, Alfonso, 2011. "Un modelo de predicción de crisis financieras en los mercados emergentes: 1970 – 2009
      [A Prediction Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: 1970 - 2009]
      ," MPRA Paper 42403, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Crises; Current-Account Problems; Early Warning of Crises.;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:22:y:2007:i:2:p:3-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcela Perticara). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deilacl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.