IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijm/journl/v16y2023i1p1-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of COVID-19 on Living Standards: Addressing the Challenges of Nowcasting Unprecedented Macroeconomic Shocks with Scant Data and Uncharted Economic Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Nora Lustig

    (Samuel Z. Stone Professor of Latin American Economics in the Department of Economics at Tulane University, and Director of the Commitment to Equity Institute at Tulane University, New Orleans, United States)

  • Valentina Martinez Pabon

    (Postdoctoral associate at Yale University, New Haven, United States)

  • Federico Sanz

    (Consultant of the Commitment to Equity Institute and the World Bank, Washington, United States)

  • Stephen D Younger

    (Consultant of the Commitment to Equity Institute, Ithaca, United States)

Abstract

We present a methodological approach with relatively low information requirements to quantify the impact of large, unprecedented macroeconomic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic on living standards across the income distribution. The approach can be produced quickly and, contrary to other "fast-delivery" exercises, does not assume that income losses are proportional across the income distribution, a feature that is critical to understanding the impact on poverty and inequality. Our method is sufficiently flexible to refine the projected effects of the shock as more information becomes available. We illustrate with data from the four largest countries in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, and discuss the estimated effect of COVID-19 on inequality and poverty. We also present the guidelines for adapting our framework to different countries and economic shocks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D Younger, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Living Standards: Addressing the Challenges of Nowcasting Unprecedented Macroeconomic Shocks with Scant Data and Uncharted Economic Behavior," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:1-27
    DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00273
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00273
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34196/ijm.00273?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merike Blofield & Nora Lustig & Mart Trasberg, 2021. "Social Protection during the Pandemic: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 104, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    2. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    3. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Dean Jolliffe & Espen Beer Prydz, 2016. "Estimating international poverty lines from comparable national thresholds," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(2), pages 185-198, June.
    5. World Bank, 2020. "COVID-19 Impact Monitoring," World Bank Publications - Reports 34213, The World Bank Group.
    6. François Bourguignon, 2011. "Status Quo In The Welfare Analysis Of Tax Reforms," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(4), pages 603-621, December.
    7. Cavallo, Alberto, 2013. "Online and official price indexes: Measuring Argentina's inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 152-165.
    8. Maho Hatayama & Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler, 2020. "Jobs’ Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0263, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    9. World Bank, 2020. "COVID-19 Impact Monitoring," World Bank Publications - Reports 34402, The World Bank Group.
    10. Redmond, Paul & McGuinness, Seamus, 2020. "Who can work from home in Ireland?," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT87, June.
    11. Nancy Birdsall, 2010. "The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries; or, The Rich and the Rest, Not the Poor and the Rest," Working Papers 207, Center for Global Development.
    12. Delaporte, Isaure & Peña, Werner, 2020. "Working From Home Under COVID-19: Who Is Affected? Evidence From Latin American and Caribbean Countries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 528, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Homi Kharas, 2010. "The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 285, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D. Younger, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 92, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    2. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen Younger, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality, Poverty and Mobility in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Working Papers 556, Center for Global Development.
    3. Isaure Delaporte & Julia Escobar & Werner Peña, 2021. "The distributional consequences of social distancing on poverty and labour income inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1385-1443, October.
    4. Berniell, Lucila & Fernandez, Daniel, 2021. "Jobs’ amenability is not enough: The role of household inputs for safe work under social distancing in Latin American cities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Frank Crowley & Justin Doran, 2020. "COVID‐19, occupational social distancing and remote working potential: An occupation, sector and regional perspective," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1211-1234, December.
    6. Niembro, Andrés & Calá, Carla Daniela, 2020. "A first exploratory analysis of the regional economic impact of COVID-19 in Argentina," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3376, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    7. Cecilia Peluffo & Mariana Viollaz, 2021. "Intra-household exposure to labor market risk in the time of Covid-19: lessons from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 327-351, June.
    8. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Guido Neidhöfer & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America," Working Papers 2013, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    9. Nicola Melluso & Andrea Bonaccorsi & Filippo Chiarello & Gualtiero Fantoni, 2021. "Rapid detection of fast innovation under the pressure of COVID-19," Papers 2102.00197, arXiv.org.
    10. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    11. Leyva Gustavo & Mora Israel, 2021. "How High (Low) are the Possibilities of Teleworking in Mexico?," Working Papers 2021-15, Banco de México.
    12. Ainaa, Carmen & Brunetti, Irene & Mussida, Chiara & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Who lost the most? Distributive effects of COVID-19 pandemic," GLO Discussion Paper Series 829, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Marouani, Mohamed Ali & Minh, Phuong Le, 2020. "The first victims of Covid-19 in developing countries? The most vulnerable workers to the lockdown of the Tunisian economy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 581, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Gottlieb, Charles & Grobovšek, Jan & Poschke, Markus & Saltiel, Fernando, 2021. "Working from home in developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Chijioke O Nwosu & Umakrishnan Kollamparambil & Adeola Oyenubi, 2022. "Socio-economic inequalities in ability to work from home during the coronavirus pandemic," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 290-307, June.
    16. Daniel Garrote Sanchez & Nicolas Gomez Parra & Caglar Ozden & Bob Rijkers & Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler, 2021. "Who on Earth Can Work from Home? [Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 67-100.
    17. Christopher Hoy & Andy Sumner, 2021. "The End of Global Poverty: Is the UN Sustainable Development Goal 1 (Still) Achievable?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 419-429, September.
    18. Alleyne, Dillon & McLean, Sheldon & Abdulkadri, Abdullahi & Camarinhas, Catarina & Hendrickson, Michael & Jones, Francis & Phillips, Willard & Tokuda, Hidenobu & Pantin, Machel & Skerrette, Nyasha, 2021. "The case for financing: Caribbean resilience building in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for The Caribbean 46629, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. Luca Bonacini & Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano, 2021. "Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 303-360, January.
    20. Duman, Anil, 2020. "Wage Losses and Inequality in Developing Countries: labor market and distributional consequences of Covid-19 lockdowns in Turkey," GLO Discussion Paper Series 602, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:1-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jinjing Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.microsimulation.org/ijm/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.