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Microsimulations of Demographic Changes in England and Wales Under Different EU Referendum Scenarios

Author

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  • Agnieszka M. Werpachowska

    (Averisera Ltd, London, United Kingdom)

  • Roman Werpachowski

Abstract

We perform stochastic microsimulations of the dynamics of England and Wales population after the British referendum on EU membership, considering different possible outcomes. Employing available survey data, we model the demographics of the region over the next generation, as shaped by births, deaths and international migration. The migration patterns between England and Wales and the remaining EU countries are modified according to the possible scenarios of their future relations. We find that Brexit will accelerate the overall population ageing and the deepening imbalance between workers and retirees but reduce the population growth and the fraction of women of reproductive age. In the alternative scenarios of remaining in the EU these effects will be partially forestalled by waves of immigration from current and prospective EU countries and their children. In all considered scenarios the native British population declines. Our study demonstrates that microsimulations can be a useful tool for designing and evaluating the country?s policies in the advent of fundamental transformations.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnieszka M. Werpachowska & Roman Werpachowski, 2017. "Microsimulations of Demographic Changes in England and Wales Under Different EU Referendum Scenarios," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(2), pages 103-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:2:p:103-117
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael C. Wolfson, 1988. "Homemaker Pensions And Lifetime Redistribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 34(3), pages 221-250, September.
    2. Kirill F. Andreev & James W. Vaupel, 2006. "Forecasts of cohort mortality after age 50," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-012, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Cathal ODonoghue & Howard Redway & John Lennon, 2010. "Simulating Migration In The Pensim2 Dynamic Microsimulation Model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(2), pages 65-79.
    4. Wolfson, Michael C, 1988. "Homemaker Pensions and Lifetime Redistribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 34(3), pages 221-250, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cathal O'Donoghue & Gijs Dekkers, 2018. "Increasing the Impact of Dynamic Microsimulation Modelling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 61-96.
    2. Agnieszka Werpachowska, 2018. "Forecasting the impact of state pension reforms in post-Brexit England and Wales using microsimulation and deep learning," Papers 1802.09427, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MIGRATION; BREXIT; DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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