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Forecasting Hydropower Generation in Ghana Using ARIMA Models

Author

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  • Smart Asomaning Sarpong
  • Akwasi Agyei

Abstract

In this study, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast Ghana’s Akosombo dam level and hydropower generation by the end of year 2022. Data used for this study span from January 2010 to December 2019. Base on the final ARIMA model, power generation is forecasted to decrease from 398 Megawatts/hr in December 2019 to approximately 374 Megawatts/hr by December 2022. On the other hand, water level of the Akosombo dam is predicted to decrease marginally from 264.8 ft in December 2019 to approximately 255.19 ft by December 2022. The Volta River Authority (VRA) and managers of the electricity production in Ghana are encouraged to be proactive in expanding energy production by turning more to renewable energy sources. In the coming years, as they seek to provide sustainable electricity for their cherished customers, investment decisions should be directed towards protecting the volta river from drying up due to human and climatic activities as well as expanding energy mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Smart Asomaning Sarpong & Akwasi Agyei, 2022. "Forecasting Hydropower Generation in Ghana Using ARIMA Models," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(5), pages 1-30, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijspjl:v:11:y:2022:i:5:p:30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
    2. Ankrah, Isaac & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Renewable energy development in Ghana: Beyond potentials and commitment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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