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Extreme Value Volatility Estimators and Realized Volatility of Istanbul Stock Exchange: Evidence from Emerging Market

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  • Hakki Ozturk
  • Umit Erol
  • Asli Yuksel

Abstract

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of alternative models for the one-day ahead forecasts of BIST-30 index (Istanbul Stock Exchange- Borsa Istanbul major index that contains 30 blue-chip stocks) volatility. Realized volatility is used as the relevant benchmark for the evaluation of forecasts. We document evidence, which shows that realized volatility is a less noisy estimator than the daily square benchmark explaining more of the variation in the volatility. In addition; the benefit of using extreme value estimators as volatility proxies are discussed. It is empirically demonstrated that the extreme value estimators are 5 to 8 times more efficient than historical volatility measures. The use of extreme value estimators with simple forecasting models provide better short-term forecasts than the GARCH based volatility forecasts due to higher efficiency of extreme value estimators.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakki Ozturk & Umit Erol & Asli Yuksel, 2016. "Extreme Value Volatility Estimators and Realized Volatility of Istanbul Stock Exchange: Evidence from Emerging Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(8), pages 1-71, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:8:p:71
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    Cited by:

    1. Parthajit Kayal & Sumanjay Dutta & Vipul Khandelwal & Rakesh Nigam, 2021. "Information Theoretic Ranking of Extreme Value Returns," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Parthajit Kayal & Sumanjay Dutta & Vipul Khandelwal, "undated". "Information Theoretic Ranking of Extreme Value Returns," Working Papers 2020-195, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.

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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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