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Does Stock Market Performance Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia

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Listed:
  • Moayad H. Al Rasasi
  • Soleman O. Alsabban
  • Omar A. Alarfaj

Abstract

This research paper investigates the impact of stock prices on real economic activity in the Saudi Arabian economy. We utilize various econometric techniques – Johansen and Juselius’s (1990) cointegration tests and Granger’s (1969) causality test – to assess such a relationship, based on quarterly observations spanning the period from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Our empirical evidence indicates the presence of a significant cointegrating relationship between the two variables being examined; in other words, stock prices have a significant impact on real economic growth. Specifically, the estimated long-run relationship reveals that a 1 percent increase in stock prices would boost economic growth by 0.32 percent. In addition, the error correction model suggests that when the economy deviates from its steady state condition, it needs about a year and a half to return to its equilibrium condition. Lastly, this paper applies the most common Granger causality test, which confirms the essential role of stock prices in predicting changes in economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Soleman O. Alsabban & Omar A. Alarfaj, 2019. "Does Stock Market Performance Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    2. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Moayad Al Rasasi & Fares Rawah & Bander Alghamdi, 2020. "On the nexus between Stock Market Fluctuations and the Demand for Money in Saudi Arabia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 142-154, March.
    4. Nesrine Mechri & Salah Ben Hamad & Christian De Peretti, 2019. "The Impact of the Exchange Rate Volatilities on Stock Market Returns Dynamic," Working Papers hal-01766742, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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