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History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Boykova

    (HSE University (Russia))

  • Helena Knyazeva

    (HSE University (Russia))

  • Mikhail Salazkin

    (HSE University (Russia))

Abstract

The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of strategies. Through a retrospective analysis of prognostic science and Foresight studies, the paper presents the prerequisites for enriching the relevant methodology with the complexity science concepts. Relevant Foresight competences are identified. Case studies are presented, which can serve as practical guidelines to master the creative potential of complexity during particularly unstable periods. Special attention is paid to the emerging megatrend of the rising deglobalisation, which can radically affect the implementation of previously developed strategies. The key conclusion from the presented analysis is that skilful handling of complexity opens up major opportunities for creative growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Boykova & Helena Knyazeva & Mikhail Salazkin, 2023. "History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 17(4), pages 80-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:17:y:2023:i:4:p:80-91
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate strategies; futures studies; Foresight; history of science; sustainable development; megatrends; complex systems science; complexity; scenario planning; weak signals; uncertainty; competencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M15 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - IT Management
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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