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Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework

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  • Ram, Camelia
  • Montibeller, Gilberto

Abstract

One of the least explored aspects of scenario planning is how to assess systematically the value and robustness of strategic options after scenario development. In this context, there is growing research interest on the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate such options, but with very limited evidence about its performance in practice. This paper examines effects of applying in practice one of those recently proposed scenario-based MCDA methods for identifying robust options. Three public sector decision-making instances in Trinidad and Tobago are examined within an action research framework to provide insights on differences in decision-making behaviour and areas for improvement of the method. Findings from these in-depth case studies indicate that the method's main benefit was that it stimulated curiosity on how options might be improved in order to mitigate negative consequences and capitalise on opportunities across scenarios. We conclude the paper by discussing these findings and their implications to the development of the method and the evaluation of strategic options under deep uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ram, Camelia & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2013. "Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 657-672.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:657-672
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.019
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariya Dobryakova & Zoya Kotelnikova, 2015. "Social Embeddedness of Technology: Prospective Research Areas," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 6-19.
    2. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    3. Arasteh, Abdollah, 2017. "Considering the investment decisions with real options games approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1282-1294.
    4. Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Payam Khazaelpour & Fausto Cavallaro, 2018. "The Multi-Aspect Criterion in the PMADM Outline and Its Possible Application to Sustainability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    6. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
    7. Lívia Maria Leite Silva & Petr Ekel & Douglas Alexandre Gomes Vieira & Matheus Pereira Libório & Marcos Flávio Silveira Vasconcelos D’angelo, 2023. "Spatial Decision-Making under Uncertainties for Supporting the Prospection of Sites for Hybrid Renewable Energy Generation Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-29, June.
    8. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    9. Machani, Mahdi & Nourelfath, Mustapha & D’Amours, Sophie, 2015. "A scenario-based modelling approach to identify robust transformation strategies for pulp and paper companies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 41-63.
    10. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Favato, Giampiero & Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 135-149.
    12. Tobias Witt & Matthias Klumpp, 2021. "Multi-Period Multi-Criteria Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Renewable Energy Transition Case from Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, June.
    13. Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 2016. "A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1050-1062.
    14. Marina Boykova & Helena Knyazeva & Mikhail Salazkin, 2023. "History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 17(4), pages 80-91.
    15. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    16. Megan M. Crawford & Eoin Plant‐O'Toole, 2023. "A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.

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