IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v9y2017i3p431-d93372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines

Author

Listed:
  • Jiangfeng She

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Zhongqing Guan

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Fangfang Cai

    (School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Lijie Pu

    (School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    The Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Land and Resources, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Junzhong Tan

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Tao Chen

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract

Reclamation is capable of creating abundant land to alleviate the pressure from land shortages in China. Nevertheless, coastal reclamation can lead to severe environmental degradation and landscape fragmentation. It is quite important to monitor land use and cover change (LUCC) in coastal areas, assess coastal wetland change, and predict land use requirements. The siltation of tidal flats will result in the dynamic growth and continuous expansion of coastal areas. Therefore, the process of land change in coastal areas is different from that under the fixed terrestrial boundary condition. Cellular Automata and Multi-Agent System (CA-MAS) models are commonly used to simulate LUCC, and their advantages have been well proven under the fixed boundary condition. In this paper, we propose CA-MAS combined with a shoreline evolution forecast (CA-MAS-SEF) model to simulate the land change in coastal areas. Meanwhile, the newly increased area, because of the dynamic growth of tidal flats, is considered in the simulation process. The simulation results using the improved method are verified, and compared with observed patterns using spatial overlay. In comparison with simulation results that do not consider the expansion of tidal flats, the Kappa coefficient estimated while considering the dynamic growth of tidal flats is improved from 65.9% to 70.5%, which shows that the method presented here can be applied to simulate the LUCC in growing coastal areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiangfeng She & Zhongqing Guan & Fangfang Cai & Lijie Pu & Junzhong Tan & Tao Chen, 2017. "Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:431-:d:93372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/3/431/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/3/431/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F Wu & C J Webster, 1998. "Simulation of Land Development through the Integration of Cellular Automata and Multicriteria Evaluation," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 25(1), pages 103-126, February.
    2. Caiyao Xu & Lijie Pu & Ming Zhu & Jianguo Li & Xinjian Chen & Xiaohan Wang & Xuefeng Xie, 2016. "Ecological Security and Ecosystem Services in Response to Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Hatna, E. & Verburg, Peter H., "undated". "Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis," 116th Seminar, October 27-30, 2010, Parma, Italy 95235, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 245-260, September.
    5. Alberto Vancheri & Paolo Giordano & Denise Andrey & Sergio Albeverio, 2008. "Urban Growth Processes Joining Cellular Automata and Multiagent Systems. Part 1: Theory and Models," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(4), pages 723-739, August.
    6. Alberto Vancheri & Paolo Giordano & Denise Andrey & Sergio Albeverio, 2008. "Urban Growth Processes Joining Cellular Automata and Multiagent Systems. Part 2: Computer Simulations," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(5), pages 863-880, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Wenbo Cai & Qing Zhu & Meitian Chen & Yongli Cai, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Change and the Natural–Human Driving Processes of a Megacity’s Coastal Blue Carbon Storage," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-17, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bingkui Qiu & Shasha Lu & Min Zhou & Lu Zhang & Yu Deng & Ci Song & Zuo Zhang, 2015. "A Hybrid Inexact Optimization Method for Land-Use Allocation in Association with Environmental/Ecological Requirements at a Watershed Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Rich, Karl M. & Ross, R. Brent & Baker, A. Derek & Negassa, Asfaw, 2011. "Quantifying value chain analysis in the context of livestock systems in developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 214-222, April.
    3. Constanza Fosco, 2012. "Spatial Difusion and Commuting Flows," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 30, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
    4. Claudia Dislich & Elisabeth Hettig & Jan Salecker & Johannes Heinonen & Jann Lay & Katrin M Meyer & Kerstin Wiegand & Suria Tarigan, 2018. "Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes—An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
    6. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Shahadha, Saadi Sattar & Wendroth, Ole & Zhu, Junfeng & Walton, Jason, 2019. "Can measured soil hydraulic properties simulate field water dynamics and crop production?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Ruiyao Ying & Li Zhou & Wuyang Hu & Dan Pan, 2017. "Agricultural technical education and agrochemical use by rice farmers in China," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 522-536, September.
    9. Coronese, Matteo & Occelli, Martina & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Shang, Linmei & Heckelei, Thomas & Gerullis, Maria K. & Börner, Jan & Rasch, Sebastian, 2021. "Adoption and diffusion of digital farming technologies - integrating farm-level evidence and system interaction," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    11. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    12. Jason Wood & James Nolan, 2021. "Plant location decisions in the ethanol industry: a dynamic and spatial analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 103-132, June.
    13. Elodie Letort & Pierre Dupraz & Laurent Piet, 2017. "The impact of environmental regulations on the farmland market and farm structures: An agent-based model applied to the Brittany region of France," Working Papers SMART 17-01, INRAE UMR SMART.
    14. Nicholas R. Magliocca, 2020. "Agent-Based Modeling for Integrating Human Behavior into the Food–Energy–Water Nexus," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-25, December.
    15. Andersen, Lykke E. & Groom, Ben & Killick, Evan & Ledezma, Juan Carlos & Palmer, Charles & Weinhold, Diana, 2017. "Modelling Land Use, Deforestation, and Policy: A Hybrid Optimisation-Heterogeneous Agent Model with Application to the Bolivian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 76-90.
    16. Balmann, A. & Happe, K. & Kellermann, K. & Kleingarn, A., 2001. "Agricultural policy switchings – an agent-based approach," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 37.
    17. Berger, Thomas, 2015. "Adaptation of farm-households to increasing climate variability in Ethiopia: Bioeconomic modeling of innovation diffusion and policy interventions," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 229062, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Carauta, Marcelo & Troost, Christian & Guzman-Bustamante, Ivan & Hampf, Anna & Libera, Affonso & Meurer, Katharina & Bönecke, Eric & Franko, Uwe & Ribeiro Rodrigues, Renato de Aragão & Berger, Thomas, 2021. "Climate-related land use policies in Brazil: How much has been achieved with economic incentives in agriculture?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Bert, Federico E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Macal, Charles M. & North, Michael J. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2014. "Lessons from a comprehensive validation of an agent based-model: The experience of the Pampas Model of Argentinean agricultural systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 273(C), pages 284-298.
    20. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:431-:d:93372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.