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Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines

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  • Jiangfeng She

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Zhongqing Guan

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Fangfang Cai

    (School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Lijie Pu

    (School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    The Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Land and Resources, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Junzhong Tan

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Tao Chen

    (Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract

Reclamation is capable of creating abundant land to alleviate the pressure from land shortages in China. Nevertheless, coastal reclamation can lead to severe environmental degradation and landscape fragmentation. It is quite important to monitor land use and cover change (LUCC) in coastal areas, assess coastal wetland change, and predict land use requirements. The siltation of tidal flats will result in the dynamic growth and continuous expansion of coastal areas. Therefore, the process of land change in coastal areas is different from that under the fixed terrestrial boundary condition. Cellular Automata and Multi-Agent System (CA-MAS) models are commonly used to simulate LUCC, and their advantages have been well proven under the fixed boundary condition. In this paper, we propose CA-MAS combined with a shoreline evolution forecast (CA-MAS-SEF) model to simulate the land change in coastal areas. Meanwhile, the newly increased area, because of the dynamic growth of tidal flats, is considered in the simulation process. The simulation results using the improved method are verified, and compared with observed patterns using spatial overlay. In comparison with simulation results that do not consider the expansion of tidal flats, the Kappa coefficient estimated while considering the dynamic growth of tidal flats is improved from 65.9% to 70.5%, which shows that the method presented here can be applied to simulate the LUCC in growing coastal areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiangfeng She & Zhongqing Guan & Fangfang Cai & Lijie Pu & Junzhong Tan & Tao Chen, 2017. "Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:431-:d:93372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Wenbo Cai & Qing Zhu & Meitian Chen & Yongli Cai, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Change and the Natural–Human Driving Processes of a Megacity’s Coastal Blue Carbon Storage," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-17, August.

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