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Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis


  • Tabeau, Andrzej A.
  • Hatna, E.
  • Verburg, Peter H.


The paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty of the scenario outcomes. In this study we use sensitivity analysis to estimate the uncertainty of agricultural land use.

Suggested Citation

  • Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Hatna, E. & Verburg, Peter H., 2010. "Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis," 116th Seminar, October 27-30, 2010, Parma, Italy 95235, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa116:95235

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    Cited by:

    1. Bingkui Qiu & Shasha Lu & Min Zhou & Lu Zhang & Yu Deng & Ci Song & Zuo Zhang, 2015. "A Hybrid Inexact Optimization Method for Land-Use Allocation in Association with Environmental/Ecological Requirements at a Watershed Level," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Jiangfeng She & Zhongqing Guan & Fangfang Cai & Lijie Pu & Junzhong Tan & Tao Chen, 2017. "Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Min Zhou & Shukui Tan & Lizao Tao & Xiangbo Zhu & Ghulam Akhmat, 2015. "An interval fuzzy land-use allocation model (IFLAM) for Beijing in association with environmental and ecological consideration under uncertainty," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2269-2290, November.
    4. Senetra Adam & Szczepańska Agnieszka & Wasilewicz-Pszczółkowska Monika, 2014. "Analysis of changes in the land use structure of developed and urban areas in Eastern Poland," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, De Gruyter Open, vol. 24(24), pages 1-12, June.


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