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Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis


  • Tabeau, Andrzej A.
  • Hatna, E.
  • Verburg, Peter H.


The paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty of the scenario outcomes. In this study we use sensitivity analysis to estimate the uncertainty of agricultural land use.

Suggested Citation

  • Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Hatna, E. & Verburg, Peter H., 2010. "Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis," 116th Seminar, October 27-30, 2010, Parma, Italy 95235, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa116:95235

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 1998. "Estimating Asymmetric Price Transmission with the Error Correction Representation: An application to the German Pork Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    3. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1989. "Price Asymmetry In Spatial Fed Cattle Markets," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(02), December.
    4. Van Campenhout, Bjorn, 2007. "Modelling trends in food market integration: Method and an application to Tanzanian maize markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 112-127, February.
    5. Padilla-Bernal, Luz E. & Thilmany, Dawn D. & Loureiro, Maria L., 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Market Integration and Efficiency for U.S. Fresh Tomato Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(03), December.
    6. Abdulai, Awudu, 2000. "Spatial price transmission and asymmetry in the Ghanaian maize market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 327-349, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bingkui Qiu & Shasha Lu & Min Zhou & Lu Zhang & Yu Deng & Ci Song & Zuo Zhang, 2015. "A Hybrid Inexact Optimization Method for Land-Use Allocation in Association with Environmental/Ecological Requirements at a Watershed Level," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Jiangfeng She & Zhongqing Guan & Fangfang Cai & Lijie Pu & Junzhong Tan & Tao Chen, 2017. "Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Min Zhou & Shukui Tan & Lizao Tao & Xiangbo Zhu & Ghulam Akhmat, 2015. "An interval fuzzy land-use allocation model (IFLAM) for Beijing in association with environmental and ecological consideration under uncertainty," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2269-2290, November.
    4. Senetra Adam & Szczepańska Agnieszka & Wasilewicz-Pszczółkowska Monika, 2014. "Analysis of changes in the land use structure of developed and urban areas in Eastern Poland," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, De Gruyter Open, vol. 24(24), pages 1-12, June.


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