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Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires

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  • Thomas J. Cova

    (Department of Geography, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm 270, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
    Center for Natural & Technological Hazards, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm 270, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA)

  • Philip E. Dennison

    (Department of Geography, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm 270, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
    Center for Natural & Technological Hazards, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm 270, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA)

  • Frank A. Drews

    (Center for Natural & Technological Hazards, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm 270, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
    Department of Psychology, University of Utah, 380 S. 1530 E., Rm 502, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA)

Abstract

Improving community resiliency to wildfire is a challenging problem in the face of ongoing development in fire-prone regions. Evacuation and shelter-in-place are the primary options for reducing wildfire casualties, but it can be difficult to determine which option offers the most protection in urgent scenarios. Although guidelines and policies have been proposed to inform this decision, a formal approach to evaluating protective options would help advance protective-action theory. We present an optimization model based on the premise that protecting a community can be viewed as assigning threatened households to one of three actions: evacuation, shelter-in-refuge, or shelter-in-home. While evacuation generally offers the highest level of life protection, it can place residents at greater risk when little time is available. This leads to complex trade-offs involving expected fire intensity, available time, and the quality and accessibility of in-place shelter. An application of the model is presented to illustrate a range of issues that can arise across scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Frank A. Drews, 2011. "Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-26, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:3:y:2011:i:10:p:1662-1687:d:14205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robin L. Dillon & Catherine H. Tinsley & William J. Burns, 2014. "Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1907-1922, October.
    2. Alex W. Dye & John B. Kim & Andrew McEvoy & Fang Fang & Karin L. Riley, 2021. "Evaluating rural Pacific Northwest towns for wildfire evacuation vulnerability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 911-935, May.
    3. Xinhua Mao & Changwei Yuan & Jiahua Gan & Jibiao Zhou, 2019. "Optimal Evacuation Strategy for Parking Lots Considering the Dynamic Background Traffic Flows," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Shahparvari, Shahrooz & Chhetri, Prem & Abbasi, Babak & Abareshi, Ahmad, 2016. "Enhancing emergency evacuation response of late evacuees: Revisiting the case of Australian Black Saturday bushfire," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 148-176.
    5. Shahparvari, Shahrooz & Abbasi, Babak & Chhetri, Prem, 2017. "Possibilistic scheduling routing for short-notice bushfire emergency evacuation under uncertainties: An Australian case study," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 96-117.

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