Do Regional Differences Matter? Spatiotemporal Evolution and Convergence of Household Carbon Emissions in China

Understanding how household carbon emissions vary across time and regions is essential for promoting low-carbon lifestyles and advancing sustainability, yet this dimension remains underexplored—especially in large, diverse economies like China. This study addresses that gap by analyzing household carbon emissions across 29 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2022, focusing on regional differences and convergence patterns. Using spatial and convergence models, we find persistent clustering—where provinces with high or low emissions group together—though these patterns shift gradually. Emissions have generally risen nationwide, with convergence trends emerging in the east, central, south, and north, while the west and northeast show inconsistent dynamics. Notably, emissions in one province are influenced by those in neighboring provinces, particularly in central China, due to close economic and energy ties. Industrial structure slows convergence at the national level, whereas stronger economic development, better education, and higher industrialization contribute to narrowing regional disparities—especially in southern China. These findings offer new insights for designing region-specific strategies that align household emissions management with China’s broader climate and sustainability goals.