Dynamic Simulation Modeling for Resilience Assessment of Coupled Water–Agriculture–Community Systems in a Semi-Arid Region

Climate change presents serious threats to the sustainability of coupled Water–Agriculture–Community Systems (WACSs) in New Mexico’s Lower Rio Grande (LRG) region. Enhancing the resilience of WACSs is essential for ensuring the system’s long-term adaptability and sustainability. Although the importance of system feedback and dynamic behavior is increasingly acknowledged in resilience studies, many existing assessments fail to account for the complex interconnections and self-organizing nature of these systems. This study utilizes a System Dynamics (SD) simulation modeling and a function-based resilience framework to assess WACSs’ responses to climate change, specifically investigating whether improvements in Water Conveyance Efficiency (WCE) can enhance system resilience in the LRG. The analysis centers on the interaction of socioeconomic and hydrological dynamics, incorporating future climate projections derived from three models: UKMO, GFDL, and NCAR. Findings reveal that under the UKMO scenario, enhanced WCE leads to improved resilience in the groundwater system; however, agricultural-community resilience declines under both the UKMO and GFDL scenarios. While hydrological resilience shows improvement—particularly with increased WCE—the agriculture–community system consistently exhibits limited capacity to adapt or reorganize. The differing outcomes across climate models underscore the sensitivity of WACS resilience to varying climatic conditions.