Analyzing Wheat Production in Jordan: The Role of Population Dynamics, Climate Variability, and GIS-Based Projections

Wheat, a cornerstone of Jordan’s food security and agricultural economy, has experienced fluctuating production dynamics. Population growth, climate variability, and the gradual integration of advanced farming technologies drive these fluctuations. As the population expands, the demand for wheat naturally escalates, placing increased pressure on local production capabilities. This study aimed to analyze the impact of demographic (population) and climatic parameters of rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature on wheat production in Jordan from 1995 to 2022. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and statistical analysis methods, specifically utilizing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), were used to analyze the relationship between wheat production and population within specific periods; this study revealed an inverse relationship of coefficient of determination with (R 2 = −0.56, −0.78 and −0.89) for the north, middle, and south regions of Jordan, respectively. A direct relationship between wheat production and rainfall and temperature is explored, especially in the southern areas of Jordan (R 2 = 0.63 and 0.81), respectively. Generally, rainfall accounted for (32.26%) of the variations in wheat production, while the minimum temperature contributed (30.74%). The effect of maximum temperature was less significant, explaining the variations (13.24%). GWR tests confirmed these climatic factors’ independence, indicating each’s direct impact on wheat production. However, the total decrease in wheat production from 1995 to 2022 comprised approximately 34.19% of production. However, the total reduction in wheat production is shown from 1995 to 2022, approximately 34.19% of production. This study recommends conducting further research to delve deeper into the interplay between population growth, climatic changes, and agricultural practices, exploring the potential for developing sustainable strategies to mitigate the decline in wheat production and ensure food security in Jordan.