Optimization of Carbon Emission Reduction Path in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on System Dynamics

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region serves as a pivotal engine for China’s economic development and a gathering area for energy consumption and carbon emissions. Its early achievement of carbon peak is of great significance for promoting high-quality development and regional coordinated development. This study constructs a system dynamics model encompassing four primary subsystems, economy, energy, population, and environment, based on an in-depth analysis of the current situation and main characteristics of carbon emissions in the BTH region from 2010 to 2022. We explored the carbon emission reduction effects under different scenarios by simulating a baseline scenario, an industrial structure optimization scenario, an energy structure optimization scenario, an environmental protection scenario, and a coordinated development scenario. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2020 to 2030, carbon emissions from energy consumption in the BTH region is predicted to exhibit a fluctuating downward trend under all five scenarios, with the most rapid decline observed under the coordinated development scenario. (2) Under the single-variable regulation, Beijing achieves the best carbon emission reduction effect under the environmental protection scenario, while Tianjin and Hebei exhibit superior performance under the energy structure optimization scenario. (3) All three regions demonstrate optimal emission reductions under the coordinated development scenario. Finally, this study discusses the carbon emission reduction paths for Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, and provides targeted suggestions for their implementation.