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Research on Regional Carbon Emission Reduction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics: Key Factors and Policy Analysis

Author

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  • Yuan Zeng

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Wengang Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jingwen Sun

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Li’ao Sun

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Jun Wu

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)

Abstract

Urban agglomerations are regions where the economy and population are highly concentrated, which are also spatial units with more concentrated carbon emissions. A detailed decomposition of driving factors based on changes in carbon emissions of urban agglomerations can provide a reference for better carbon reduction policies. In this paper, we establish an evaluation framework of carbon emission drivers of urban agglomeration from the perspective of CO 2 generation and removal using a system dynamics method. The key influencing factors and optimal emission reduction measures of carbon emissions in urban agglomerations are explored. The results are as follows: (1) The industrial structure is the key influencing factor of carbon emissions; (2) compared with no implementation of any policies, the total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of integrated policies all significantly decrease, with a decrease of 43.68% and 53.32%, respectively in 2035; (3) energy structure adjustment has a significant effect in reducing carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity; (4) the role of increasing investment in technological innovation in ensuring achievement of “carbon peak” should not be ignored. It is found that integrated policies often exhibit a better emission reduction effect, but this effect is not a simple summation of the effects of each single policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Zeng & Wengang Zhang & Jingwen Sun & Li’ao Sun & Jun Wu, 2023. "Research on Regional Carbon Emission Reduction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics: Key Factors and Policy Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6654-:d:1241323
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuohua Zhang & Hanning Dong & Can Lu & Wei Li, 2023. "Carbon Emission Projection and Carbon Quota Allocation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China under Carbon Neutrality Vision," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-29, October.
    2. Yuan Feng & Liyuan Wang & Changfei Nie, 2024. "Can place-based policy reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from industrial transformation and upgrading exemplary zone in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Chao Wang & Yuxiao Kong & Xingliang Lu & Hongyi Xie & Yanmin Teng & Jinyan Zhan, 2024. "Rethinking Regional High-Quality Development Pathways from a Carbon Emission Efficiency Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, September.

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