Collaborative Industrial Agglomeration and a Green Low-Carbon Circular Development Economy: A Study Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

As an important direction in industrial evolution, the synergistic agglomeration of manufacturing and productive service industries has become a key path to promote the green transformation of the economy. Based on China’s provincial panel data, this study utilizes a variety of econometric methods to explore in depth the mechanisms, spatial effects and regional differences in the impact of the synergistic agglomeration of manufacturing and productive service industries on the green, low-carbon and recycling development of the economy. The empirical results show that the synergistic agglomeration of manufacturing and productive services not only directly promotes the green, low-carbon and recycling development of the economy, but also generates an indirect impact through the intermediary channel and exhibits significant spillover characteristics in the spatial dimension. This conclusion holds firm after a series of robustness tests. In addition, environmental regulations and the level of regional industrialization play a moderating role on the impact of industrial synergistic agglomeration and green, low-carbon and recycling development of the economy, and the effect of the role varies across regions and levels of economic development. This paper provides a decision-making reference for further optimizing the regional layout of China’s industries and enhancing the green, low-carbon and recycling development of the economy in each province.