Decomposition of Industrial Carbon Emission Drivers and Exploration of Peak Pathways: Empirical Evidence from China

Against the backdrop of increasing extreme weather events associated with global climate change, regulating carbon dioxide emissions, a primary contributor to atmospheric warming, has emerged as a pressing global challenge. Focusing on China as a representative case study of major developing economies, this research examines industrial carbon emission patterns during 2001–2022. Methodologically, it introduces an innovative analytical framework that integrates the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to both decompose industrial emission drivers and project future trajectories through 2040. Key findings reveal that:the following: (1) Carbon intensity in China’s industrial sector has been substantially decreasing under green technological advancements and policy interventions. (2) Industrial restructuring demonstrates constraining effects on carbon output, while productivity gains show untapped potential for emission abatement. Notably, the dual mechanisms of enhanced energy efficiency and cleaner energy transitions emerge as pivotal mitigation levers. (3) Scenario analyses indicate that coordinated policies addressing energy mix optimization, efficiency gains, and economic restructuring could facilitate achieving industrial carbon peaking before 2030. These results offer substantive insights for designing phased decarbonization roadmaps, while contributing empirical evidence to international climate policy discourse. The integrated methodology also presents a transferable analytical paradigm for emission studies in other industrializing economies.