Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Carbon Allowance Prices in China: Implications for Sustainable Low-Carbon Transition

Guided by China’s “Dual Carbon” targets, the construction of its carbon market advances steadily. As a key policy mechanism for promoting emissions reduction and sustainable development, the emissions trading system plays a vital role in the national green transition strategy. Nonetheless, significant regional disparities exist in carbon emissions, and carbon allowance prices are subject to considerable fluctuations. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s carbon emissions, investigating their distribution patterns across different regions. Furthermore, it analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in carbon allowance prices, focusing on their fluctuation patterns and spatial distribution, particularly regional differences in carbon market prices. This study focuses on the interplay between carbon emissions and carbon allowance prices, conducting an in-depth investigation into their interaction mechanisms. Using Shanghai as a case study, we construct a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to empirically assess the dynamic impact of carbon emissions on carbon prices and their associated feedback effects. Subsequently, we propose policy recommendations for optimizing carbon market operations. This study enhances carbon markets’ functionality as climate governance tools, providing empirical and theoretical foundations for advancing low-carbon transitions and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).