IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i12p5341-d1675297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Carbon Allowance Prices in China: Implications for Sustainable Low-Carbon Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Guoli Qu

    (School of Economics and Management, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China)

  • Chengwei Guo

    (School of Economics and Management, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China)

  • Jindong Cui

    (School of Economics and Management, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China)

Abstract

Guided by China’s “Dual Carbon” targets, the construction of its carbon market advances steadily. As a key policy mechanism for promoting emissions reduction and sustainable development, the emissions trading system plays a vital role in the national green transition strategy. Nonetheless, significant regional disparities exist in carbon emissions, and carbon allowance prices are subject to considerable fluctuations. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s carbon emissions, investigating their distribution patterns across different regions. Furthermore, it analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in carbon allowance prices, focusing on their fluctuation patterns and spatial distribution, particularly regional differences in carbon market prices. This study focuses on the interplay between carbon emissions and carbon allowance prices, conducting an in-depth investigation into their interaction mechanisms. Using Shanghai as a case study, we construct a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to empirically assess the dynamic impact of carbon emissions on carbon prices and their associated feedback effects. Subsequently, we propose policy recommendations for optimizing carbon market operations. This study enhances carbon markets’ functionality as climate governance tools, providing empirical and theoretical foundations for advancing low-carbon transitions and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Suggested Citation

  • Guoli Qu & Chengwei Guo & Jindong Cui, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Carbon Allowance Prices in China: Implications for Sustainable Low-Carbon Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5341-:d:1675297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/12/5341/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/12/5341/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rannou, Yves & Boutabba, Mohamed Amine & Barneto, Pascal, 2021. "Are Green Bond and Carbon Markets in Europe complements or substitutes? Insights from the activity of power firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. Ding, Heping & Liu, Conghu, 2024. "Carbon emission efficiency of China's logistics industry: Measurement, evolution mechanism, and promotion countermeasures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Guoli Qu & Chengwei Guo & Jindong Cui, 2024. "Influencing Factors and Formation Mechanism of Carbon Emission Rights Prices in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-15, October.
    4. Li, Yaowang & Yang, Xuxin & Du, Ershun & Liu, Yuliang & Zhang, Shixu & Yang, Chen & Zhang, Ning & Liu, Chang, 2024. "A review on carbon emission accounting approaches for the electricity power industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    5. Wang, Xinru & Long, Ruyin & Sun, Qingqing & Chen, Hong & Jiang, Shiyan & Wang, Yujie & Li, Qianwen & Yang, Shuhan, 2024. "Spatial spillover effects and driving mechanisms of carbon emission reduction in new energy demonstration cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    6. Marco Schletz & Laura A. Franke & Søren Salomo, 2020. "Blockchain Application for the Paris Agreement Carbon Market Mechanism—A Decision Framework and Architecture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Mahapatra, Bamadev & Irfan, Mohd, 2021. "Asymmetric impacts of energy efficiency on carbon emissions: A comparative analysis between developed and developing economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    8. Xian, Botong & Wang, Yanan & Xu, Yalin & Wang, Juan & Li, Xiaoyan, 2024. "Assessment of the co-benefits of China's carbon trading policy on carbon emissions reduction and air pollution control in multiple sectors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1322-1335.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Jiamin & Zhang, Jiaoning & Ma, Xiaoyu & Zhao, Bin & Zhang, Mengyu, 2024. "The road to sustainable development: Can the new energy demonstration city policy promote the industrial structure transformation?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PB).
    2. Huang, Wenyang & Zhao, Jianyu & Wang, Xiaokang, 2024. "Model-driven multimodal LSTM-CNN for unbiased structural forecasting of European Union allowances open-high-low-close price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Waranya Thepsaskul & Wongkot Wongsapai & Tassawan Jaitiang & Panuwich Jaekhajad, 2025. "Prospects of Attaining Thailand’s Carbon Neutrality Target Through Carbon Capture and Storage by Public Power Utility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Zheng, Li & Yuan, Ling & Khan, Zeeshan & Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Zhang, Leilei, 2023. "How G-7 countries are paving the way for net-zero emissions through energy efficient ecosystem?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Renjie Zhang & Hsingwei Tai & Kuotai Cheng & Huizhong Dong & Wenhui Liu & Junjie Hou, 2022. "Carbon Emission Efficiency Network: Evolutionary Game and Sensitivity Analysis between Differentiated Efficiency Groups and Local Governments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Weng, Shimei & Song, Malin & Tao, Weiliang & Chen, Jianbao & Chen, Hao, 2025. "Breaking the inertia of urban energy systems: Does the new energy demonstration city construction improve carbon unlocking efficiency?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    7. Mohd Irfan & Bamadev Mahapatra & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2024. "Energy efficiency in the Indian transportation sector: effect on carbon emissions," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 6653-6676, March.
    8. Shi, Shouyuan & Yu, Tao & Lan, Chaofan & Pan, Zhenning, 2024. "Estimating the actual emission cost in an annual compliance cycle: Synergistic generation and carbon trading optimization for price-taking generation companies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    9. Lin, Jin & Dong, Jun & Liu, Dongran & Zhang, Yaoyu & Ma, Tongtao, 2022. "From peak shedding to low-carbon transitions: Customer psychological factors in demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    10. Xi Zhao & Siqin Zhang & Najid Ahmad & Shuangguo Wang & Jiaxing Zhao, 2024. "Unlocking Sustainable Growth: The Transformative Impact of Green Finance on Industrial Carbon Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Jiawen Liu & Yue Liu & Jiayi Wang & Xinyue Chen & Liyuan Deng, 2025. "Valuing Carbon Assets for Sustainability: A Dual-Approach Assessment of China’s Certified Emission Reductions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-20, May.
    12. Wang, Peng-Tao & Xu, Qing-Chuang & Wang, Fei-Yin & Xu, Mao, 2025. "Study on the coupling of the iron and steel industry with renewable energy for low-carbon production: A case study of matching steel plants with photovoltaic power plants in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    13. Boqiang Lin & Tong Su, 2023. "Uncertainties and green bond markets: Evidence from tail dependence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4458-4475, October.
    14. Yuanying Chi & Chenfeng Zhang & Mengwan Zhang & Yanzhao Zhang & Yuxi Wu, 2025. "The Impact of Renewable Energy Subsidy Policies on Indirect Carbon Emissions in the Power System," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 15(4), pages 1-3.
    15. Niu, Xiaoyan & Zhang, Yuwen & Li, Baoqi & Chen, Zhenling & Ni, Guohua & Lyu, Ning, 2024. "How does carbon emission trading scheme affect enterprise market value? A roadmap towards natural resources sustainability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Wenxian Ye & Shaolong Zeng, 2025. "An Empirical Study on the Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of the Digital Economy in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Xiangnan Zhai & Xue Yang & Darko B. Vukovic & Daria A. Dinets & Qiang Liu, 2025. "Carbon Emissions Trading Policy and Regional Energy Efficiency: A Quasi-Natural Experiment from China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Li, Yiming & Solaymani, Saeed, 2021. "Energy consumption, technology innovation and economic growth nexuses in Malaysian," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    19. Yong Cui & Jian Zheng & Wenying Wu & Kun Xu & Desen Ji & Tian Di, 2024. "Framework and Outlooks of Multi-Source–Grid–Load Coordinated Low-Carbon Operational Systems Considering Demand-Side Hierarchical Response," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-20, December.
    20. Wang, Peng-Tao & Xu, Qing-Chuang & Wang, Fei-Yin & Xu, Mao, 2024. "Investigating the impacts of the Dual Carbon Targets on energy and carbon flows in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5341-:d:1675297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.