An Empirical Study on the Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of the Digital Economy in Zhejiang, China

Given the simultaneous background of growing ‘dual-carbon’ ambitions and the rapid expansion of the digital economy, it is critical to understand the mechanisms by which the digital economy influences carbon emissions. This understanding is critical for overcoming regional green development gaps and facilitating the implementation of the national ‘dual-carbon’ policy. Using panel data from 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province from 2012 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model and a mediation effect model for empirical analyses to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect of Zhejiang’s digital economy objectively. The findings show that the digital economy directly cuts carbon emissions and has a spatial spillover effect, while indirectly facilitating emission reduction via the intermediary pathway of innovation efficiency. However, the mediating effect of industrial structure alteration is statistically insignificant. Regional heterogeneity research suggests that carbon reduction impacts are more prominent in economically developed cities (e.g., Hangzhou and Ningbo), whereas the effects are modest in less-developed areas, despite the digital economy’s potential for reduction. This study provides an empirical framework for local governments to establish distinct carbon reduction policies, as well as practical insights into how to align the development of digital economy with low-carbon goals.