IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i11p5177-d1671955.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in SADC Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Phetole Donald Semosa

    (Development and Business Sciences, Faculty of Economics, School of Development Studies, University of Mpumalanga, Mbombela 1200, South Africa)

Abstract

Agriculture is a key sector for economic growth, food security, and rural livelihoods within the member nations of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). However, the agricultural systems throughout the SADC regions face serious threats from climate change, which is seen through temperature rises, irregular rainfall patterns, and the rising frequency of droughts. The study examines the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity in four SADC countries: South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. It also assesses the impact of institutional structures, policy initiatives, and technological advancements in enhancing agricultural resilience to climate change. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model was employed to assess short and long run impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. The findings reveal that precipitation significantly increases agricultural productivity in the long run, but not in the short run. In addition, governance inefficiencies, which are measured by control of corruption index have negative long run impacts on agricultural productivity. The estimated speed of adjustment (ECT: −0.9557) demonstrated a strong long run equilibrium relationship, indicating that agricultural productivity converges to its long run trend regardless of short run fluctuations. In conclusion, the findings of this study provide essential knowledge to assist policymakers, researchers, and development agencies in the creation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving agricultural resilience to climate change across SADC member countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Phetole Donald Semosa, 2025. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in SADC Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:11:p:5177-:d:1671955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/11/5177/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/11/5177/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Income and CO2 emissions: Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 413-423, February.
    2. Ghosh, Bikramaditya & Pham, Linh & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Energy transition metals and global sentiment: Evidence from extreme quantiles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    3. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    4. G. S. Maddala, 1999. "On the Use of Panel Data Methods with Cross-Country Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 429-448.
    5. David M. Konisky & Llewelyn Hughes & Charles H. Kaylor, 2016. "Extreme weather events and climate change concern," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 533-547, February.
    6. Ochieng, Justus & Kirimi, Lilian & Mathenge, Mary, 2016. "Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Production: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers in Kenya," Working Papers 229711, Egerton University, Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
    7. Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages 325-347, September.
    8. Nicholas N Ngepah, 2014. "International trade and agricultural production: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community sub-region," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 494-514, May.
    9. David Konisky & Llewelyn Hughes & Charles Kaylor, 2016. "Extreme weather events and climate change concern," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 533-547, February.
    10. Francis Mwaura & Geofrey Okoboi, 2014. "Climate Variability and Crop Production in Uganda," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(2), pages 159-159, February.
    11. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:55-56:p:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga, 2024. "Environment vs. Economic Growth: Do Environmental Preferences Translate Into Support for Green Parties?," IZA Discussion Papers 17475, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2023. "Drought Exposure and Accuracy: Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Beliefs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 649-672, August.
    3. Jeremiah Bohr, 2017. "Is it hot in here or is it just me? Temperature anomalies and political polarization over global warming in the American public," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 271-285, May.
    4. Grechyna, Daryna, 2025. "Raising awareness of climate change: Nature, activists, politicians?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    5. Lackner, Teresa & Fierro, Luca E. & Mellacher, Patrick, 2025. "Opinion dynamics meet agent-based climate economics: An integrated analysis of carbon taxation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. Elena Stolyarova, 2013. "Carbon Dioxide Emissions, economic growth and energy mix: empirical evidence from 93 countries," EcoMod2013 5433, EcoMod.
    7. Hüseyin İçen, 2020. "Environmental Kuznets Curve in D8 Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(32), pages 85-96, June.
    8. Best, Rohan & Burke, Paul J., 2018. "Adoption of solar and wind energy: The roles of carbon pricing and aggregate policy support," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 404-417.
    9. Dai, Zhifeng & Hu, Juan & Liu, Xinheng & Yang, Mi, 2024. "ynamic time-domain and frequency-domain spillovers and portfolio strategies between climate change attention and energy-relevant markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Devleena Chakravarty & Sabuj Kumar Mandal, 2019. "Environmental Kuznets curve for local and global pollutants: application of GMM and random coefficient panel data models," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 21(2), pages 212-233, December.
    11. Donatella Baiardi, 2021. "What do you think about climate change?," Working Papers 477, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2021.
    12. Bennedsen, Mikkel & Hillebrand, Eric & Jensen, Sebastian, 2023. "A neural network approach to the environmental Kuznets curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Alan E. Stewart & Harrison E. Chapman & Jackson B. L. Davis, 2023. "Anxiety and Worry about Six Categories of Climate Change Impacts," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Paola D'Orazio, 2022. "Mapping the emergence and diffusion of climate-related financial policies: Evidence from a cluster analysis on G20 countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 135-147.
    15. Barra, Cristian & Zotti, Roberto, 2016. "Investigating the impact of national income on environmental pollution. International evidence," MPRA Paper 74149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Baiardi, Donatella & Morana, Claudio, 2021. "Climate change awareness: Empirical evidence for the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Cristian Barra & Roberto Zotti, 2018. "Investigating the non-linearity between national income and environmental pollution: international evidence of Kuznets curve," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(1), pages 179-210, January.
    18. Piaggio, Matías & Padilla, Emilio, 2012. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: Heterogeneity across countries and non-stationary series," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 370-381.
    19. Sitong Yang & Shouwei Li & Xue Rui & Tianxiang Zhao, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on the asset side and liability side of the insurance industry: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-51, June.
    20. Brown, Pike & Walsh, Patrick & Booth, Pam, 2020. "Environmental signalling & expectations of future drought: Evidence from panel data," 2020 Conference (64th), February 12-14, 2020, Perth, Western Australia 305239, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:11:p:5177-:d:1671955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.