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Climate Variability and Crop Production in Uganda

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  • Francis Mwaura
  • Geofrey Okoboi

Abstract

In this paper, the relationship between climate variation and crop output in Uganda for the period 1981 to 2008 is examined. The time-varying ARCH model of the crop production function is used to estimate the relationships. Analysis of the incidence of rainfall and temperature variation from the long-term average indicates that it is insignificant. Estimates of the trend of rainfall and temperature suggest a gradual decline in volume of rainfall and record of temperatures in Uganda in the present and near future. ARCH model estimates show that a variation in rainfall and temperature from the long-term mean has significant effects on crop output, while exponential increase in rainfall has detrimental effect on crop output. It is recommended that the government should support farmers to adopt small-scale irrigation systems; and capacity of weather forecast agencies should be strengthened to monitor and educate the public on present and potential near-future climate variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis Mwaura & Geofrey Okoboi, 2014. "Climate Variability and Crop Production in Uganda," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(2), pages 159-159, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:jsd123:v:7:y:2014:i:2:p:159
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lydia Chabala & Elias Kuntashula & Peter Kaluba & Moombe Miyanda, 2015. "Assessment of Maize Yield Variations Due to Climatic Variables of Rainfall and Temperature," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(11), pages 143-143, October.
    2. Phetole Donald Semosa, 2025. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in SADC Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-21, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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