The Impact of Digital Service Trade on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being Under Sustainable Development Goals

Reducing the carbon intensity of well-being (CIWB) is essential for advancing environmental sustainability and socio-economic development. The expansion of digital service trade has emerged as a novel engine of global economic growth and a promising pathway for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation. This study investigates the nonlinear impact of digital service trade on CIWB, identifying an inverted U-shaped relationship—initially increasing CIWB, then reducing it beyond a certain threshold. In the financial digital service trade sector, this effect is mediated by energy structure transition, whereas in the technology-intensive sector, it is driven by green technological innovation. In contrast, digital service trade in the insurance, pension, and audiovisual sectors directly suppresses CIWB. Moreover, rising public environmental awareness helps leverage and strengthen the inhibitory effect of digital service trade on CIWB. Regionally, except for North America (which displays a consistently inhibitory effect), Asia, Africa, Europe, and Oceania reflect patterns similar to the overall sample. In regions with higher economic and internet development levels, the inverted U-shaped curve is steeper, and its turning point is located further to the left. Temporally, the relationship mirrors the full-sample patterns prior to the enforcement of the Paris Agreement, while an inhibitory effect emerges afterward. These findings offer policy implications for achieving the United Nations’ 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.