Crisis-Proofing the Fresh: A Multi-Risk Management Approach for Sustainable Produce Trade Flows

This study posits the need for a conceptual multi-risk management approach for fresh produce, an essential product category for societal resilience and one constantly affected by climate change, policy volatility, and geopolitical disruptions. The research started with a literature-informed typological risk mapping, leading to Gephi ver 0.10.1 visualizations of networks related to this trade. Network analysis using 2024 bilateral trade data revealed a core–periphery topology, with the United States, Spain, and the Netherlands as central hubs. A gravity-based simulation model was, lastly, used to address the following question: what structural vulnerabilities and flow-based sensitivities define the global fresh produce trade, and how do they respond to simulated multi-risk disruptions? The model used the case of the USA as a global trade hub and induced two compounding risks: a protectionist tariff policy shock and a climate-related shock to its main supplier. The conclusion was that the fragility in the fresh produce trade enhances the cascading effects that any risk event may have across the environmental, economic, and social sustainability dimensions. This paper emphasizes the need for anticipatory governance, the diversification of trade partners, and investment in cold chain resilience, offering a means for policymakers to acknowledge the risk and mitigate the threats to the increasingly fragile fresh produce trade.