IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i21p9596-d1513758.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Life Cycle Prediction of Airport Operation Based on System Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Lili Wan

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

  • Zhanpeng Shan

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

  • Xinyue Jiang

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

  • Zhan Wang

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

  • Yangyang Lv

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

  • Shumeng Xu

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

  • Jiahui Huang

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

Abstract

Traditional airport development planning often overlooks an in-depth consideration of the airport operation life cycle, which frequently causes deviations from planned objectives during operation. This paper presents a framework for predicting and segmenting the airport operation life cycle by integrating the dynamic characteristics of the System Dynamics (SD) model with the static properties of Logistic modeling to examine the development trajectory of airport operations. The influencing factors in this model are selected across three levels: airport, city, and macro-environment. A system dynamics model of airport operation is constructed using causal loop diagrams and system flow diagrams. Using Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN) as a case study, the airport’s operational capacity from 2005 to 2035 is predicted through SD simulation. Subsequently, the airport operation life cycle from 2005 to 2050 is forecasted and segmented using Logistic modeling. The results indicate that, under the standard scenario, CAN’s operational capacity experiences two declines in 2016 and 2020, attributed to airport construction and emergencies. Logistic modeling identifies three distinct life cycle phases in the airport’s operation. Furthermore, by comparing various airport operation scenarios, the analysis reveals that fluctuations in the city economy significantly impact the airport’s operational system without altering its overall development trajectory. In contrast, the occurrence of emergencies can substantially modify the airport operation life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Lili Wan & Zhanpeng Shan & Xinyue Jiang & Zhan Wang & Yangyang Lv & Shumeng Xu & Jiahui Huang, 2024. "Life Cycle Prediction of Airport Operation Based on System Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-26, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:21:p:9596-:d:1513758
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/21/9596/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/21/9596/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moradi, Afsaneh & Vagnoni, Emidia, 2018. "A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: What are the future transition pathways?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-243.
    2. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. E. Tattershall & G. Nenadic & R. D. Stevens, 2021. "Modelling trend life cycles in scientific research using the Logistic and Gompertz equations," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(11), pages 9113-9132, November.
    4. Itani, Nadine & O׳Connell, John F. & Mason, Keith, 2014. "A macro-environment approach to civil aviation strategic planning," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 125-135.
    5. Jianjun Dong & Yuanxian Xu & Bon-gang Hwang & Rui Ren & Zhilong Chen, 2019. "The Impact of Underground Logistics System on Urban Sustainable Development: A System Dynamics Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guoping Tu & Zhe Zan, 2025. "The Green Paradox of New Energy Vehicles: A System Dynamics Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-30, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jose Asturias & Manuel García-Santana & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1881-1940.
    2. Tianjiao Zhao & Xiang Xiao & Qinghui Dai, 2021. "Transportation Infrastructure Construction and High-Quality Development of Enterprises: Evidence from the Quasi-Natural Experiment of High-Speed Railway Opening in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Juan Guillermo Urzúa-Morales & Juan Pedro Sepulveda-Rojas & Miguel Alfaro & Guillermo Fuertes & Rodrigo Ternero & Manuel Vargas, 2020. "Logistic Modeling of the Last Mile: Case Study Santiago, Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Konstantin Buechel, Stephan Kyburz, 2016. "Fast Track to Growth? The Impact of Railway Access on Regional Economic Development in 19th Century Switzerland," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper12, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    5. Peters, Jörg, 2016. "Infrastructure and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: A review," Ruhr Economic Papers 628, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Cucu, Florin, 2025. "Roads, internal migration and the spatial sorting of U.S. high-skill workers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Fan, Xiaomin & Xu, Yingzhi, 2023. "Does high-speed railway promote urban innovation? Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Das, Abhiman & Ghani, Ejaz & Grover, Arti & Kerr, William & Nanda, Ramana, 2024. "JUE insight: Infrastructure and Finance: Evidence from India’s GQ highway network," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Céline Nauges, 2018. "Correction to: Water Hauling and Girls’ School Attendance: Some New Evidence from Ghana," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(2), pages 447-447, February.
    10. Fang Yang & Qinfan Gan, 2024. "Effect of Energy Poverty Alleviation on High-Quality Economic Development: An Empirical Study Based on China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Stephan Maurer & Ferdinand Rauch, 2023. "Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 142-162.
    12. Dinkelman, Taryn & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2015. "Migration, congestion externalities, and the evaluation of spatial investments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 189-202.
    13. Dongmei Li & Renai Jiang & Zheyuan Lu & Shanghong Sun & Longguo Wang, 2023. "Does the Construction of High-Speed Rail Change the Development of Regional Finance?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-27, July.
    14. Bird, Julia & Straub, Stéphane, 2020. "The Brasília experiment: The heterogeneous impact of road access on spatial development in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Ralph de Haas & Steven Poelhekke, 2016. "Mining Matters: Natural Resource Extraction and Local Business Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 6198, CESifo.
    16. Ejaz Ghani & Arti Grover Goswami & William R. Kerr, 2016. "Highway to Success: The Impact of the Golden Quadrilateral Project for the Location and Performance of Indian Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 317-357, March.
    17. Fujii, Tomoki & Shonchoy, Abu S., 2020. "Fertility and rural electrification in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Xiao Ke & Yuanke Yan, 2021. "Can proactive fiscal policy achieve the goal of “Beyond Keynesianism”?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 1078-1103, May.
    19. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Sylvie Démurger & Shi Li, 2013. "Urbanisation and Migration Externalities in China," AMSE Working Papers 1307, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 06 Feb 2013.
    20. Yang, Xiaolan & Wang, Rui & Guo, Dongmei & Sun, Weizeng, 2020. "The reconfiguration effect of China's high-speed railway on intercity connection ——A study based on media attention index," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 47-56.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:21:p:9596-:d:1513758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.