IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i14p6004-d1434851.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian and Analytic Hierarchy Process-Based Multilevel Community Resilience Evaluation Method and Application Study

Author

Listed:
  • Jianfu Lin

    (Center of Safety Monitoring of Engineering Structures, Shenzhen Academy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction, China Earthquake Administration, Shenzhen 518003, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yilin Li

    (Center of Safety Monitoring of Engineering Structures, Shenzhen Academy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction, China Earthquake Administration, Shenzhen 518003, China
    Department of Applied Mechanics and Engineering, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518107, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Lixin Wang

    (Center of Safety Monitoring of Engineering Structures, Shenzhen Academy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction, China Earthquake Administration, Shenzhen 518003, China)

  • Junfang Wang

    (National Key Laboratory of Green and Long-Life Road Engineering in Extreme Environment, College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)

  • Tianyu Zhang

    (Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Weilin Wu

    (Center of Safety Monitoring of Engineering Structures, Shenzhen Academy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction, China Earthquake Administration, Shenzhen 518003, China
    Department of Applied Mechanics and Engineering, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518107, China)

Abstract

Cities are complex systems influenced by a multitude of factors, encompassing society, economy, culture, and environment. These factors make urban development highly vulnerable to various disturbances. Communities work as the fundamental building blocks of a city and directly impact both its social structure and spatial layout. Moreover, urban planning and policies play a crucial role in shaping the development trajectory of communities and the living environment for residents. This study aims to develop a Bayesian and analytic hierarchy process (BAHP)-based multilevel community resilience evaluation method to assess the ability of the community system to withstand disturbances and recover from them. First, the proposed method establishes a comprehensive assessment index system that can evaluate social and environmental resilience as well as institutional and managerial resilience at multiple levels. This system serves as a quantitative decision-making tool to elucidate the impact of various factors on community resilience. Furthermore, the “relative demand coefficient” (RDC) is proposed to compare different communities’ resilience by using Bayesian inference to determine its most probable value (MPV). To validate the applicability of the proposed method, an empirical study was conducted in the Dafapu community located in the Longgang District of Shenzhen. Meanwhile, a simulated virtual community is employed for comparison with the Dafapu community as an illustrative example showcasing the proposed method’s superior performance after integrating the RDC. The empirical study demonstrates that the proposed BAHP-based method can effectively and quantitatively highlight the recovery capabilities and limitations for different communities in various dimensions while providing a clear direction for enhancing urban community resilience. This research contributes new insights to the theory, provides a practical tool to quantify community resilience, and offers a viable path for the actual enhancement of community resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfu Lin & Yilin Li & Lixin Wang & Junfang Wang & Tianyu Zhang & Weilin Wu, 2024. "A Bayesian and Analytic Hierarchy Process-Based Multilevel Community Resilience Evaluation Method and Application Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-45, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:14:p:6004-:d:1434851
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/14/6004/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/14/6004/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yanni Xiong & Changyou Li & Mengzhi Zou & Qian Xu, 2022. "Investigating into the Coupling and Coordination Relationship between Urban Resilience and Urbanization: A Case Study of Hunan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Chin-Yi Chen & Jih-Jeng Huang, 2023. "Integrating Dynamic Bayesian Networks and Analytic Hierarchy Process for Time-Dependent Multi-Criteria Decision-Making," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    3. Yong Cai & Wenke Zong & Sheng Jiao & Zhu Wang & Linzhi Ou, 2023. "Land-Use Assessment and Trend Simulation from a Resilient Urban Perspective: A Case Study of Changsha City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Edward Ludwig Glaeser, 2005. "Urban colossus: why is New York America's largest city?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 7-24.
    5. Li, Yaohan & Dong, You & Guo, Hongyuan, 2023. "Copula-based multivariate renewal model for life-cycle analysis of civil infrastructure considering multiple dependent deterioration processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Thomas Wilbanks & Jayant Sathaye, 2007. "Integrating mitigation and adaptation as responses to climate change: a synthesis," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 957-962, June.
    7. Sofia Castelo & Miguel Amado & Filipa Ferreira, 2023. "Challenges and Opportunities in the Use of Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "Urban Colossus: Why is New York America's Largest City?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2073, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Wutao Zhao & Jianguo Wang & Yuanhao Xu & Shengbo Chen & Jiawang Zhang & Siqi Tang & Guojian Wang, 2023. "Community Resilience Assessment and Identification of Barriers in the Context of Population Aging: A Case Study of Changchun City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Long, Fenjie & Zheng, Longfei & Song, Zhida, 2018. "High-speed rail and urban expansion: An empirical study using a time series of nighttime light satellite data in China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 106-118.
    2. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Regional Interest Rate Variations: Evidence from the Indonesian Credit Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-073/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
    4. Dirk Meissner, 2012. "The Economic Impact of Spillovers from R&D and Innovation," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(4), pages 20-31.
    5. Andrews, Michael J. & Whalley, Alexander, 2022. "150 years of the geography of innovation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    7. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    8. Francisco J. Goerlich Gisbert & Isidro Cantarino Marti, 2014. "El concepto europeo de ciudad: una aplicación para España," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 30, pages 145-156.
    9. Ridhwan, M.M. & Nijkamp, P. & Rietveld, P., 2008. "Regional development and monetary policy : a review of the role of monetary unions, capital mobility and locational effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0007, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Zeng, Lijun & Wang, Jinfeng & Zhang, Jinshuo & Lv, Jun & Cui, Wei, 2020. "New Urbanization paths in mineral resource abundant regions in China: A three-dimensional cube framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Kuld, Lukas & Mitchell, Sara & Hellmanzik, Christiane, 2025. "Manhattan Transfer: Heterogeneous productivity effects of agglomeration in American authorship," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Jordan Adamson, 2018. "Agglomeration and the Extent of the Market: An Experimental Investigation into Spatially Coordinated Exchange," Working Papers 18-12, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    13. World Bank, 2007. "Brazil - São Paulo : Inputs for a Sustainable Competitive City Strategy, Volume 2. Background Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 7986, The World Bank Group.
    14. Winifred Curran, 2010. "In Defense of Old Industrial Spaces: Manufacturing, Creativity and Innovation in Williamsburg, Brooklyn," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 871-885, December.
    15. Lei, Weiqian & Jiao, Limin & Xu, Zhibang & Zhu, Xinhua, 2024. "Evolution of urban land and population system coupling micro–dynamics and macro-stability: Trends and paths," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. N. Yu. Vlasova, 2022. "The Positions of the Largest and Large Cities in Spatial Transformations of Russian Regions: The Case of the Urals," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, September.
    17. Baxamusa, Mufaddal & Jalal, Abu, 2023. "The decline in stock exchange listed firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 295-317.
    18. Tom Nicholas & Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 278-309, June.
    19. Maloney, William F. & Caicedo, Felipe Valencia, 2012. "The persistence of (subnational) fortune : geography, agglomeration, and institutions in the new world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6187, The World Bank.
    20. Bailey, Michael & Farrell, Patrick & Kuchler, Theresa & Stroebel, Johannes, 2020. "Social connectedness in urban areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:14:p:6004-:d:1434851. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.