Multi-Scale Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Economic Belt and Study of Decoupling Effects

An in-depth, longitudinal examination of carbon emissions and decoupling within the Yangtze River Economic Belt, supplemented by a dynamic assessment of its evolutional trajectory, provides a scientifically grounded framework and pragmatic value for the drafting of regional carbon emission mitigation strategies. Using the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a context, this study formulates a carbon emission model spanning provincial, city, and county levels. The model serves to uncover the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions within the Yangtze River Economic Belt from a multi-scalar vantage point. The Tapio decoupling model is then invoked to examine the extent and nature of decoupling between economic advancement and carbon emissions across these disparate scales. The outcomes divulge the following: (1) At the provincial echelon, the progression of carbon emissions born from energy consumption within the Yangtze River Economic Zone presents an escalating then stabilizing trend line. The carbon emissions growth rate transitions from a swift ascension of 8.44 percent initially, subsequently tapering to a moderate increment of 0.42 percent at the period’s culmination. The trajectory of carbon decoupling at the provincial scale tends to be generally propitious. (2) At the municipal scale, the overall carbon emission level shows a gradual upward trend, and then gradually forms a pattern of centripetal aggregation and peripheral diffusion. The decoupling status during the study period is mainly weak and strong decoupling, with the number of weak decoupling showing a fluctuating change in increasing and then decreasing, while the strong decoupling shows a slow and orderly growth trend, and is mainly distributed in most of the municipalities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. (3) At the county scale, centripetal aggregation and peripheral diffusion were already present at the beginning of the study period, followed by the gradual expansion and formation of several carbon emission centers of different sizes. The temporal evolution of county-level decoupling is more significant, with weak and strong decoupling dominating the county-scale decoupling during the study period, especially in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, but the overall trend shows signs of gradual decoupling.