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Enhancing Sustainable Dairy Industry Growth through Cold-Supply-Chain-Integrated Production Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Abhishek Kashyap

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Patna, Patna 800005, India)

  • Om Ji Shukla

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Patna, Patna 800005, India)

  • Bal Krishna Jha

    (Indian Council of Agricultural Research-Research Complex for Eastern Region (ICAR-RCER), Farming System Research Centre for Hill and Plateau Region Ranchi, Ranchi 834010, India)

  • Bharti Ramtiyal

    (Department of Management Studies, Graphic Era (Deemed to Be University), Dehradun 248002, India)

  • Gunjan Soni

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur, Jaipur 302017, India)

Abstract

Cold supply chains (CSCs) are critical for preserving the quality and safety of perishable products like milk, which plays a vital role in the daily lives of a vast population, especially in countries like India. This research centers on sustainable milk production in Northern India, with priorities of ensuring efficiency and waste reduction within the cold supply chain. Leveraging data from a prominent North India-based dairy company, Company ‘X’, an ARIMA model is applied for predicting monthly milk production trends. Utilizing the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (IBM SPSS STATISTICS 20) software, the study forecasts Company ‘X’s monthly milk production and identifies four distinct ARIMA models based on the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF). By comparing predicted and actual milk production values (April–October 2021), sustainability metrics are integrated into ARIMA forecasts. Implications for the dairy sector’s sustainability and alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are assessed through error terms such as R squared (R 2 ) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The study promotes sustainable milk production practices in Northern India’s dairy sector, resonating with the SDGs to optimize demand–supply dynamics and foster a more environmentally conscious dairy industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhishek Kashyap & Om Ji Shukla & Bal Krishna Jha & Bharti Ramtiyal & Gunjan Soni, 2023. "Enhancing Sustainable Dairy Industry Growth through Cold-Supply-Chain-Integrated Production Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:22:p:16102-:d:1283439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Gaetano Perone, 2020. "An ARIMA model to forecast the spread and the final size of COVID-2019 epidemic in Italy," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 20/07, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Saurabh Bandyopadhyay & Laxmi Joshi, 2022. "Understanding Implications of Dairy Sector Development to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)," NCAER Working Papers 139, National Council of Applied Economic Research.
    5. Upton, Martin, 2004. "The Role of Livestock in Economic Development and Poverty Reduction," PPLPI Working Papers 23783, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative.
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