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Impacts of Green Energy Expansion and Gas Import Reduction on South Korea’s Economic Growth: A System Dynamics Approach

Author

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  • Azam Ghezelbash

    (Institute of Cleaner Production Technology, Pukyong National University, Busan 48547, Republic of Korea)

  • Mitra Seyedzadeh

    (Department of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948978, Iran)

  • Vahid Khaligh

    (Institute of Cleaner Production Technology, Pukyong National University, Busan 48547, Republic of Korea)

  • Jay Liu

    (Institute of Cleaner Production Technology, Pukyong National University, Busan 48547, Republic of Korea
    Department of Chemical Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan 48547, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

South Korea, ranking ninth among the largest energy consumers and seventh in carbon dioxide emissions from 2016 to 2021, faces challenges in energy security and climate change mitigation. The primary challenge lies in transitioning from fossil fuel dependency to a more sustainable and diversified energy portfolio while meeting the growing energy demand for continued economic growth. This necessitates fostering innovation and investment in the green energy sector. This study examines the potential impact of green energy expansion (through integrating renewable energy and hydrogen production) and gas import reduction on South Korea’s economic growth using a system dynamics approach. The findings indicate that increasing investment in green energy can result in significant growth rates ranging from 7% to 35% between 2025 and 2040. Under the expansion, renewable energy scenario (A) suggests steady but sustainable economic growth in the long term, while the gas import reduction scenario (B) displays a potential for rapid economic growth in the short term with possible instability in the long term. The total production in Scenario B is USD 2.7 trillion in 2025 and will increase to USD 4.8 trillion by 2040. Scenario C, which combines the effects of both Scenarios A and B, results in consistently high economic growth rates over time and a substantial increase in total production by 2035–2040, from 20% to 46%. These findings are critical for policymakers in South Korea as they strive for sustainable economic growth and transition to renewable energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Azam Ghezelbash & Mitra Seyedzadeh & Vahid Khaligh & Jay Liu, 2023. "Impacts of Green Energy Expansion and Gas Import Reduction on South Korea’s Economic Growth: A System Dynamics Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:12:p:9281-:d:1166646
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    1. Khaligh, Vahid & Ghezelbash, Azam & Liu, Jay & Won, Wangyun & Koo, Junmo & Na, Jonggeol, 2024. "Multi-period hydrogen supply chain planning for advancing hydrogen transition roadmaps," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Yao Li & Yugang He, 2024. "Unraveling Korea’s Energy Challenge: The Consequences of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Energy Use on Economic Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Grzegorz Zimon & Dulal Chandra Pattak & Liton Chandra Voumik & Salma Akter & Funda Kaya & Robert Walasek & Konrad Kochański, 2023. "The Impact of Fossil Fuels, Renewable Energy, and Nuclear Energy on South Korea’s Environment Based on the STIRPAT Model: ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, August.

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