IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i16p10203-d890216.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Driving with Eyes on the Rear-View Mirror—Why Weak Sustainability Is Not Enough

Author

Listed:
  • Alan Randall

    (Sustainability Institute and Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA)

Abstract

Weak sustainability, WS, attempts a comprehensive notion of sustainability, sustaining human welfare directly, or equivalently, sustaining inclusive wealth, IW, sufficient to sustain welfare. Sustainability is, in principle, forever, and accordingly, IW is conceived and assessed in a very long-term context. Given that future outcomes are unobservable, IW assessments are conducted in terms of expectations. However, this introduces pervasive circular reasoning: the calculated value of IW assumes that our expectations will be met, but that is the question. Optimistic expectations (for example) increase calculated IW, which, in turn, increases our confidence that our society is on a sustainable path. Given the logical difficulties of projecting IW into the future, analysts resort to tracking IW at regular intervals through the recent past. This reduces, but does not eliminate, the circularity problem. The signals from tracking IW are less than perfect from a policy perspective: they are too aggregate, perhaps masking impending crises regarding particular resources until it is too late; and too dependent on imperfect markets; and they document the recent past, so policy managers are always playing catch-up. WS-based sustainability policy frameworks include WS-plus, which invokes ad hoc strong sustainability, SS, patches to address threatened resource crises. It may also be possible to allow a degree of WS flexibility for individual jurisdictions within the constraints of a global safe operating space, SOS.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Randall, 2022. "Driving with Eyes on the Rear-View Mirror—Why Weak Sustainability Is Not Enough," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:16:p:10203-:d:890216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/16/10203/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/16/10203/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
    2. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2018. "Asset Bubbles and Credit Constraints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2590-2628, September.
    3. Dietz, Simon & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: Concepts and measurement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 617-626, March.
    4. Glenn-Marie Lange & Quentin Wodon & Kevin Carey, 2018. "The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29001.
    5. Rintaro Yamaguchi & Moinul Islam & Shunsuke Managi, 2019. "Inclusive wealth in the twenty-first century: a summary and further discussion of Inclusive Wealth Report 2018," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 101-111, August.
    6. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    7. Alan Randall, 2022. "How Strong Sustainability Became Safety," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    8. Hodjat Ghadimi & Trevor Harris & Timothy Warner, 2015. "A geospatial approach to measuring regional and sub-regional inclusive wealth: the case of resource rich West Virginia, USA," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 199-224, November.
    9. Jean Bonnet & Eva Coll-Martínez & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2021. "Evaluating Sustainable Development by Composite Index: Evidence from French Departments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Adrian Boos, 2015. "Genuine Savings as an Indicator for “Weak” Sustainability: Critical Survey and Possible Ways forward in Practical Measuring," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-37, April.
    11. John Hartwick, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investment of Rents from Exhaustible Resources in a Two Sector Model," Working Paper 281, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Johan Rockström & Will Steffen & Kevin Noone & Åsa Persson & F. Stuart Chapin & Eric F. Lambin & Timothy M. Lenton & Marten Scheffer & Carl Folke & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Björn Nykvist & Cynthia , 2009. "A safe operating space for humanity," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 472-475, September.
    13. Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji & Mr. Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/020, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Kirk Hamilton & Giovanni Ruta, 2009. "Wealth Accounting, Exhaustible Resources and Social Welfare," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 53-64, January.
    15. Alan Randall, 2020. "On Intergenerational Commitment, Weak Sustainability, and Safety," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-18, July.
    16. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    17. Edward B Barbier, 2019. "The concept of natural capital," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 35(1), pages 14-36.
    18. Yijia Huang & Jiaqi Zhang & Jinqun Wu, 2020. "Integrating Sustainability Assessment into Decoupling Analysis: A Focus on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    19. Patricia Renou-Maissant & Jean Bonnet & Eva Coll-Martinez, 2021. "Evaluating Sustainable Development by Composite Index: Evidence from French Departments," Post-Print hal-03637639, HAL.
    20. Alan Randall, 2021. "Monitoring Sustainability and Targeting Interventions: Indicators, Planetary Boundaries, Benefits and Costs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    21. Alan Randall, 2021. "Resource Scarcity and Sustainability—The Shapes Have Shifted but the Stakes Keep Rising," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, May.
    22. Elena G. Irwin & Sathya Gopalakrishnan & Alan Randall, 2016. "Welfare, Wealth, and Sustainability," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 77-98, October.
    23. Fang, Kai & Heijungs, Reinout & De Snoo, Geert R., 2015. "Understanding the complementary linkages between environmental footprints and planetary boundaries in a footprint–boundary environmental sustainability assessment framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 218-226.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan Randall, 2021. "Monitoring Sustainability and Targeting Interventions: Indicators, Planetary Boundaries, Benefits and Costs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Alan Randall, 2020. "On Intergenerational Commitment, Weak Sustainability, and Safety," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Alan Randall, 2022. "How Strong Sustainability Became Safety," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Alan Randall, 2021. "Resource Scarcity and Sustainability—The Shapes Have Shifted but the Stakes Keep Rising," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, May.
    5. Eoin McLaughlin & Cristián Ducoing & Les Oxley, 2024. "Tracing Sustainability in the Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850–2018," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Basu, Rahul & Pegg, Scott, 2020. "Minerals are a shared inheritance: Accounting for the resource curse," MPRA Paper 102270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ellalee, Haider & Al-Qaysi, Israa I., 2023. "Digital Government a Pathway to Sustainable Development," MPRA Paper 118178, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2023.
    8. McGrath, Luke & Hynes, Stephen & McHale, John, 2019. "Augmenting the World Bank's estimates: Ireland's genuine savings through boom and bust," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Padmanabha Hota & Bhagirath Behera, 2016. "Opencast coal mining and sustainable local livelihoods in Odisha, India," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(1), pages 1-13, April.
    10. McLaughlin, Eoin & Ducoing, Cristián & Hanley, Nick, 2024. "Challenges of wealth-based sustainability metrics: A critical appraisal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    11. Jason A. Hubbart & Hodjat Ghadimi, 2023. "Regional Wealth Data Acquisition and Modeling: Innovations Needed for Advancement in Sustainable Wealth in Energy-Rich Regions," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Batrancea Larissa & Rathnaswamy Malar Maran & Batrancea Ioan & Nichita Anca & Rus Mircea-Iosif & Tulai Horia & Fatacean Gheorghe & Masca Ema Speranta & Morar Ioan Dan, 2020. "Adjusted Net Savings of CEE and Baltic Nations in the Context of Sustainable Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-17, October.
    13. Cairns, Robert D., 2018. "Economic Accounting in the Simple Hotelling Model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 18-27.
    14. Klauer, Bernd & Bartkowski, Bartosz & Manstetten, Reiner & Petersen, Thomas, 2017. "Sustainability as a Fair Bequest: An Evaluation Challenge," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 136-143.
    15. John L. Pender & Jeremy G. Weber & Jason P. Brown, 2014. "Sustainable Rural Development and Wealth Creation," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 28(1), pages 73-86, February.
    16. Kirk Hamilton, 2014. "Measuring sustainability in the UN system of envrionmental-economic accounting," GRI Working Papers 154, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    17. Conceição Castro & Cristina Lopes, 2022. "Digital Government and Sustainable Development," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 880-903, June.
    18. Kirk Hamilton, 2016. "Measuring Sustainability in the UN System of Environmental-Economic Accounting," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(1), pages 25-36, May.
    19. Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, 1999. "Materials, Capital, Direct/Indirect Substitution, and Mass Balance Production Functions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(4), pages 547-561.
    20. Seyhan, Demet & Weikard, Hans-Peter & van Ierland, Ekko, 2012. "An economic model of long-term phosphorus extraction and recycling," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-108.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:16:p:10203-:d:890216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.