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Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislav E. Shmelev

    (Environment Europe Limited, Oxford OX2 6JG, UK
    Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Vitaliy Salnikov

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Galina Turulina

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Svetlana Polyakova

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Tamara Tazhibayeva

    (Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan)

  • Tobias Schnitzler

    (Austrian Committee, The World University Service (WUS), 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Irina A. Shmeleva

    (Institute of Design and Urban Studies, ITMO University, 197101 St. Petersburg, Russia)

Abstract

In such drought-prone regions as Kazakhstan, research on regional drought characteristics and their formation conditions is of paramount importance for actions to mitigate drought risks caused by climate change. This paper presents the results of research on the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric droughts as one of the most important factors hindering the formation of crop yields. The influence of several potential predictors characterizing teleconnection in the coupled “atmosphere–ocean” system and cosmic-geophysical factors affecting their formation is analyzed. The spatial relationships between atmospheric aridity at the individual stations of the investigated area and the wheat yield in Kazakhstan as well as its relationships with potential predictors were determined using econometric methods. High correlation was shown between wheat yield fluctuations and Multivariate El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), galactic cosmic radiation, solar activity, and atmospheric drought expressed through the soil moisture index, which in turn depends on precipitation levels and temperatures. The model could be modified further so that the individual components could be forecasted into the future using various time series in an ARIMA model. The resulting integration of these forecasts would allow the prediction of wheat yields in the future. The obtained results can be used in the process of creating effective mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and droughts based on their early diagnosis.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav E. Shmelev & Vitaliy Salnikov & Galina Turulina & Svetlana Polyakova & Tamara Tazhibayeva & Tobias Schnitzler & Irina A. Shmeleva, 2021. "Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:15:p:8583-:d:606497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ephias M. Makaudze, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Value of El Niñobased seasonal climate forecasts for smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe," Working Papers 303, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Ubilava, David & holt, Matt, 2013. "El Ni~no southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 1-25.
    3. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
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    2. Tamilarasu Arivelarasan & V. S. Manivasagam & Vellingiri Geethalakshmi & Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari & Kiruthika Natarajan & Mohan Balasubramanian & Ramasamy Gowtham & Raveendran Muthurajan, 2023. "How Far Will Climate Change Affect Future Food Security? An Inquiry into the Irrigated Rice System of Peninsular India," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, February.

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